用不确定性校准推荐,让低活跃用户更稳,高活跃用户更广。
Uncertainty-Calibrated Recommendations for Low-Active Users

- 基于模型不确定性设计风险规避与探索策略,差异化服务不同用户。
- 低活跃用户留存提升,高活跃用户内容多样性显著增加。
- 工业级落地验证,兼顾稳定性和探索性推荐效果。
推荐系统面临的核心挑战是平衡低活跃用户(LAUs)的可靠性与高活跃用户(HAUs)的多样性。关键在于量化模型不确定性,其可反映预测误差风险并揭示模型知识边界。在大规模短视频与直播平台中,不确定性可预警低质量推荐导致的低活跃用户流失,并识别高活跃用户的内容多样化机会。为此,我们提出一个统一、可生产部署的框架,通过不确定性校准驱动差异化策略:对低活跃用户采用基于不确定性的风险规避去增强策略以抑制不可靠推荐;对高活跃用户则采用风险追逐的上限置信度(UCB)策略鼓励探索。在主流直播平台上的验证表明,该框架显著提升了低活跃用户的留存(活跃时长)与满意度(优质观看时长占比),同时大幅提高高活跃用户兴趣多样性与品类覆盖度,证明了不确定性感知推荐在工业场景中的价值。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
A fundamental challenge in recommender systems is balancing reliability for Low-Active Users (LAUs) with diversity for High-Active Users (HAUs). The key to this balance lies in quantifying model uncertainty, which approximates the risk of prediction errors and reveals the limits of the model's current knowledge. On large-scale short-video and livestream platforms, model uncertainty can warn of low-quality recommendations that may lead to disengagement of LAUs and at the same time identify opportunities to diversify content recommendation for HAUs. To leverage this dichotomy, we introduce a unified, production-ready framework that calibrates uncertainty to drive differentiated strategies. Specifically, we implement a model-uncertainty-based risk-averse deboosting policy for LAUs to suppress unreliable recommendations, while employing a risk-seeking Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) strategy for HAUs to encourage exploration. Validated on a major livestream platform, our framework demonstrates significant improvements in retention (active hours) and satisfaction (quality watch time ratio) for LAUs as well as remarkable increases in interest diversity and category coverage for HAUs, proving the value of uncertainty-aware recommendation in industrial settings.
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