通过曲率感知图重连,缓解时序残差传播中的信息瓶颈问题。
Improving Spatio-Temporal Residual Error Propagation by Mitigating Over-Squashing

- 基于离散Forman曲率识别信息瓶颈边,动态重连图结构以增强传播
- 在4个真实数据集上提升CRPS得分,对LSTM/Transformer/xLSTM均有效
- 适用于需要精准不确定性建模的多变量时空预测任务
残差误差传播是循环模型中的核心难题,微小预测偏差随时间累积导致长期性能下降。准确建模残差相关性对概率多变量时间序列预测中的不确定性量化至关重要。尽管近期时序深度模型能高效参数化时变同期相关性,但常假设误差时间独立,并忽略观测网络中的空间相关性。本文提出Teger,一种结构化不确定性模块,克服了误差相关自回归预测在时空上的局限。Teger引入空间曲率感知的图重连机制,显式强化由离散Forman曲率识别出的信息瓶颈边。该组件集成于低秩加对角协方差头,利用Woodbury恒等式保持推断可计算性。Teger与主干网络无关,仅需任意自回归编码器输出的隐状态。我们提供了理论证据,并在四个真实世界时空数据集上对LSTM、Transformer和xLSTM主干进行实验,显示连续排名概率分数(CRPS)持续提升。进一步提供形式化理论分析,揭示曲率感知重连与(1)过挤压缓解、(2)改善谱连通性、(3)降低有效电阻、(4)改进协方差校准界之间的关联。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Residual error propagation remains a fundamental problem in recurrent models, where small prediction inaccuracies compound over time and degrade long-horizon performance. Accurately modeling the correlation structure of such residuals is critical for reliable uncertainty quantification in probabilistic multivariate timeseries forecasting. While recent time-series deep models efficiently parametrize time-varying contemporaneous correlations, they often assume temporal independence of errors and neglect spatial correlation across the observed network. In this paper, we introduce Teger, a structured uncertainty module that overcomes the spa- tial and temporal limitations of error-correlated autoregressive forecasting. Teger proposes a spatial curvature-aware graph rewiring mechanism explicitly strengthening information-bottleneck edges identified by discrete Forman curvature. The component is integrated into a low-rank-plus-diagonal covariance head, preserving tractable inference via the Woodbury identity. Teger is backbone-agnostic, requiring only the latent state produced by any autoregressive encoder. We provide theoretical evidence of Teger, and experimentally evaluate it on LSTM, Transformer, and xLSTM backbones across four real-world spatio-temporal datasets, showing consistent improvement in Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). We further provide a formal theoretical analysis connecting curvature-aware rewiring to (i) oversquashing alleviation, (ii) improved spectral connectivity, (iii) reduced effective resistance, and (iv) improved covariance calibration bounds
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