arXiv:2605.18395cs.CYcs.AI2026-05

用人口普查模拟诊断韩语大模型政治偏见,发现三类系统性错误。

Diagnosing Korean-Language LLM Political Bias via Census-Grounded Agent Simulation

  • 基于人口普查构建模拟框架,评估四款韩语大模型在六次选举中的表现。
  • 发现模型在温和选民中存在进步主义偏差,缓解后误差降低5.2倍。
  • 适合关注模型公平性与选举预测的开发者与政策研究者。

大型语言模型(LLMs)在选民模拟中表现出系统性政治偏见,但其内在机制及跨语言泛化能力仍不明确。我们提出Dynamo-K,一个基于人口普查的模拟框架,用于评估四款韩语大模型在六次韩国选举(2017-2025)中的政治行为。通过该框架,我们识别出三类系统性失败模式:(1) 温和代理人中的进步主义偏差,显式缓解使平均绝对误差(MAE)降低5.2倍;(2) 模型依赖的第三方支持度崩溃,区分了支持度失效与决策偏差;(3) 地区极化崩溃,模型双向低估历史政党强区。为解决这些问题,我们证明场景重构可恢复2017年MAE的62%。此外,引入一种学习重加权适配器,无需候选名字即可校准对立价值模型。验证诊断框架时,Dynamo-K准确预测了3/3总统选举结果——包括2022年0.73%微弱优势下仅2.1个百分点的MAE——并正确识别了保留选举中的主导政党。该流程开源,提供了一种可扩展、低成本的诊断大模型政治行为的方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit systematic political biases in voter simulations, but their underlying mechanisms and cross-lingual generalizations remain poorly understood. We introduce Dynamo-K, a census-grounded simulation framework evaluating Korean-language LLM political behavior across four models on six Korean elections (2017-2025). Using this framework, we identify three systematic failure modes: (1) progressive bias in moderate agents, where explicit mitigation reduces Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 5.2 times; (2) model-dependent third-party salience collapse, distinguishing between salience failure and decision bias; and (3) regional polarization collapse, where models bidirectionally under-predict historical party strongholds. To address these failures, we demonstrate that scenario reframing recovers 62% of 2017 MAE by restoring third-party visibility. Furthermore, we introduce a learned reweighting adapter that successfully calibrates opposing-valence models without relying on candidate names at train or test time. Validating our diagnostic framework, Dynamo-K accurately predicts 3/3 presidential winners - including a 2.1%p MAE on the highly contested 0.73%p-margin 2022 race - and correctly identifies the dominant party in a held-out local election. The pipeline is open-source and provides a scalable, cost-effective method for diagnosing LLM political behavior.

大模型政治偏见选举模拟韩语

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