arXiv:2605.18784q-fin.RMcs.AI2026-05被引 2

厘清AI风险在保险中的四类边界:可保、隐含暴露、被排除与非传统风险。

The Insurability Frontier of AI Risk: Mapping Threats to Affirmative Coverage, Silent Exposures, and Exclusions

  • 按55类AI威胁分类,分析26种保险产品覆盖情况。
  • 发现主流保险公司对模型漂移、幻觉等风险定位不同。
  • 基础模型集中导致系统性风险,是新型保险难题。

随着自主型AI快速扩散,商业保险面临新覆盖难题:部分AI引发的损失已被明确承保,部分则在传统网络、技术失误与疏忽(E&O)、董事及高管(D&O)、雇员行为责任(EPLI)、犯罪及媒体保险中产生隐含的AI暴露,还有些正被主动排除。本文通过编码55类AI威胁与26种保险产品、附加条款及排除机制,基于公开承保材料和OWASP/MITRE威胁目录,绘制出四层可保性边界:明确承保风险、隐含AI暴露、主动排除风险,以及超出常规私人保险结构的风险。编码反映的是保险公司公开声明立场,而非具体合同条款;统计数据描述的是承保方公开表态,而非实际赔付情况。三个模式显现:第一,明确承保覆盖开始按主要风险侧重分化——如慕尼黑再保险侧重模型性能与漂移,Armilla及部分劳埃德市场关注幻觉与广义AI责任,东京海上日动与CFC聚焦知识产权和技术E&O,Apollo ibott关注新兴自治系统责任,Coalition聚焦深度伪造与AI驱动的网络响应;第二,传统险种仍存在隐含AI暴露,当AI作为工具而非法律因果时;第三,基础模型集中是真正新颖的可保性边界,因上游模型失效可能同时影响多个被保险人,关键问题在于每种市场设计缓解何种可保性约束,而不仅是识别系统性风险模板。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The rapid diffusion of agentic AI has created a new coverage problem for commercial insurance: some AI-mediated losses are now affirmatively insured, some create silent-AI exposure under legacy cyber, technology errors-and-omissions (E&O), directors-and-officers (D&O), employment practices liability (EPLI), crime, and media policies, and others are being actively excluded. This paper maps that emerging boundary by coding 55 AI threat classes against 26 insurance products, endorsements, and exclusion regimes using public carrier materials and OWASP/MITRE threat catalogs. We identify a four-tier insurability frontier: affirmatively insured perils, silent-AI exposures, actively excluded perils, and perils outside conventional private insurance structures. Our coding measures publicly claimed positioning rather than executed contract wording; the headline statistics describe what carriers publicly state about coverage, not what would be paid in any specific claim. Three patterns emerge. First, affirmative AI coverage is beginning to differentiate by primary risk emphasis: public materials often position Munich Re around model performance and drift, Armilla and parts of the Lloyd's market around hallucination and broader AI liability, Tokio Marine Kiln and CFC around IP and technology E&O concerns, Apollo ibott around emerging autonomous system liability, and Coalition around deepfake and AI-enabled cyber response. Second, legacy lines retain silent-AI exposure where AI is an instrumentality rather than the legal cause of loss. Third, foundation model concentration is the clearest genuinely novel insurability frontier because upstream model failure can correlate losses across many cedents at once; the relevant market design question is which insurability constraint each candidate structure relaxes, not merely which systemic risk template exists.

AI保险风险分担系统性风险再保险

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