通过平衡时空维度提升大规模预测精度,解决跨领域迁移难题。
Dimensional Balance Improves Large Scale Spatiotemporal Prediction Performance

- 用低秩嵌入压缩空间维度,扩展时序跨度捕捉长期依赖
- 在交通、气象和疫情数据上实现显著准确率提升
- 适合需高精度时空预测的跨领域应用
精准的时空模式分析在城市交通、气象学和公共卫生监测等领域至关重要。然而,现有方法存在性能瓶颈,通常仅带来小幅提升,且跨领域迁移能力有限。我们通过时空熵度量分析该瓶颈,发现熵不匹配是复杂性失衡的诊断指标,而非熵对齐必然提升预测性能。实证表明,更大不匹配常伴随更高预测不确定性,尤其在固定模型容量下。基于此诊断,我们提出一种可扩展的自适应框架,协调空间与时间特征表示:通过低秩矩阵嵌入压缩空间维度以保留关键结构,同时扩展时序范围以捕捉长程依赖,并缓解由时间异质性引发的累积误差。在城市交通、气象及流行病数据集上的大量实验表明,该框架在多个评估领域均取得显著精度提升,展现出广泛适用性,对多种时空任务具有前景。代码已公开于GitHub:https://github.com/ST-Balance/ST-Balance。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate spatiotemporal pattern analysis is critical in fields such as urban traffic, meteorology, and public health monitoring. However, existing methods face performance bottlenecks, typically yielding only incremental gains and often exhibiting limited cross-domain transferability. We analyze this bottleneck through spatial and temporal entropy measures, which are used as diagnostic indicators of spatiotemporal complexity mismatch rather than as guarantees that entropy alignment alone yields better forecasting. Empirically, larger mismatch is often accompanied by higher prediction uncertainty, especially under a fixed model-capacity budget. Guided by this diagnostic, we propose a scalable, adaptive framework that harmonizes spatial and temporal feature representations. Spatial dimensionality is compressed via low-rank matrix embedding to preserve essential structure, while an extended temporal horizon captures long-range dependencies and mitigates cumulative errors arising from temporal heterogeneity. Extensive experiments on urban traffic, meteorological, and epidemic datasets demonstrate substantial accuracy gains and broad applicability across the evaluated domains, suggesting that the framework is promising for a wide range of spatiotemporal tasks beyond the current study. The code is available on GitHub at https://github.com/ST-Balance/ST-Balance.
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