arXiv:2605.18843cs.LG2026-05

让大模型学会按时间规则推理,防止用未来信息作弊。

TEMPO: Temporal Enforcement via Mode-Separated Policy Optimization for Trustworthy LLM Backtesting

论文配图:TEMPO: Temporal Enforcement via Mode-Separated Policy Optimization for Trustworthy LLM Backtesting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用双模式奖励机制强制模型先杜绝泄露,再提升表现
  • 实测将知识泄露从2~13%降到0.6~3.7%,任务准确率提升6~13%
  • 适合需要可信历史回测的金融、预测类应用

在历史事件上回测大模型需仅基于截止日期前的信息进行推理。然而模型常因预训练数据泄露截止日后信息,导致性能虚高,评估失效。提示词约束在相关性内容被抑制时失效,知识消除法也无法解决此问题,因为时间合规性是实例相关的:同一事实对不同截止日可能合法或违规。与其删除知识,不如训练模型具备时间纪律——根据每条样本的截止日选择证据。本文提出TEMPO(Temporal Enforcement via Mode-separated Policy Optimization),通过两项创新实现:(1) 双模式奖励机制,先以泄漏模式强制使截止日后陈述为零,再以性能模式优化任务表现;(2) 基于GRPO的训练流程,使模型发现符合时间约束的推理策略。理论证明训练单调降低泄漏,收敛至无泄漏最优解,并在合规后提升任务表现。在三个预测任务和两个模型上,TEMPO将泄漏率从2~13%降至0.6~3.7%,当存在强截止日前信号时任务性能提升6~13%,在纯有效信息下难以预测的任务中也保持原有水平。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Backtesting large language models on historical events requires reasoning exclusively from information available before a specified cutoff date. Yet models routinely leak post-cutoff knowledge from pre-training into their reasoning, inflating apparent accuracy and undermining evaluation validity. Prompt-based constraints fail when suppressed content is causally related to the prediction, and knowledge unlearning cannot address this problem because temporal compliance is instance-specific: the same fact may be legitimate evidence for one cutoff date and a violation for another. Rather than erasing knowledge, the model must learn temporal discipline: selecting evidence conditioned on each instance's cutoff date. We propose TEMPO (Temporal Enforcement via Mode-separated Policy Optimization), which trains this discipline via two contributions: (1) a two-mode reward where a leakage mode drives post-cutoff claims to zero as a hard prerequisite before a performance mode optimizes task performance; and (2) a GRPO-based training pipeline that enables the model to discover temporally valid reasoning strategies. We prove that training monotonically decreases leakage, converges to the leak-free optimum, and improves task performance once compliance is achieved. On three prediction tasks and two models, TEMPO reduces leakage from 2~13% to 0.6~3.7% across all conditions, with task performance improving 6~13% where strong pre-cutoff signals exist and maintained where the prediction task is inherently difficult from valid information alone.

大模型评估时间合规可信推理

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