用多时间步预测提升光伏功率预测精度,让电网更稳定。
Learning Long-Term Temporal Dependencies in Photovoltaic Power Output Prediction Through Multi-Horizon Forecasting

- 设计多时步联合优化框架,捕捉长期时间依赖关系。
- 在多个预测时点上均显著提升准确率,且计算开销几乎不变。
- 适用于需要高精度光伏预测的电力系统与智能电网场景。
全球光伏装机容量在2024年达到创纪录的597 GW,其间歇性发电特性加剧了电网不稳定性,亟需可靠预测模型。尽管基于地面天空图像(GSI)的深度学习直接预测已成为主流方法,但现有研究多局限于单一架构评估和单步(点)预测。本文提出从传统单步预测转向多时步预测框架,实现与架构无关的精度提升。实验验证:对一系列未来值进行联合优化,可避免网络权重梯度与滤波器多样性过早收敛,从而更好捕捉隐含的跨步时间依赖。结合序列天空影像与历史光伏发电数据,该方法在多种深度学习架构下评估,显著提升了全预报时域内的预测准确性与鲁棒性,同时保持计算高效。相比单步模型,性能更优且开销可忽略,为现代电网增强韧性提供了可扩展、高效的解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The rapid global expansion of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity-reaching a record 597 GW in 2024-highlights the urgent need for robust forecasting models to mitigate the grid instability caused by the intermittent nature of solar irradiance. While deep learning-based direct forecasting using ground-based sky images (GSI) has emerged as a dominant approach, existing literature is often constrained by single-architecture evaluations and an exclusive focus on single-horizon (point) prediction. This paper proposes a transition from traditional single-horizon estimation toward a multi-horizon forecasting framework, leading to an architecture-independent improvement in accuracy. We hypothesize and demonstrate experimentally that joint optimization over a sequence of future values allows deep neural networks to better capture latent inter-step temporal dependencies by avoiding precocious convergence of the network in terms of both weight gradients and filter diversity. Leveraging this architecture-independent improvement that integrates sequential sky imagery with historical PV generation data, we evaluate the models' abilities to predict power output across multiple discrete future time steps simultaneously. Our methodology is validated through a comparative analysis across diverse deep learning architectures. The results demonstrate that this multi-horizon approach significantly enhances predictive accuracy and robustness across the entire forecast horizon while maintaining computational parsimony. By achieving superior performance with negligible overhead compared to single-horizon models, this work provides a scalable and efficient solution to improve the resilience of modern power grids.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。