arXiv:2605.19113stat.MEcs.LG2026-05

直接优化可解释的临床风险评分,提升预测准确性与实用性。

Learning Interpretable Point-Based Clinical Risk Scores via Direct Optimization

论文配图:Learning Interpretable Point-Based Clinical Risk Scores via Direct Optimization
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 采用灵活贪心策略直接学习整数权重评分,避免传统近似方法偏差。
  • 在Epic Cosmos大样本数据中构建了用于出院后死亡风险的共病评分。
  • 方法兼顾可解释性与优化目标,适合临床决策支持系统部署。

许多临床风险评分采用非负整数点加法规则,对二值预测特征赋分,既便于实际使用,也促进模型稀疏性。现有方法通常先拟合回归模型,再对系数缩放后四舍五入为整数,虽计算快但无法保证最优。另一种方式是通过整数规划搜索所有可能整数权重以直接优化目标函数,但计算成本高,尤其当目标函数非凹或不连续时。本文提出新型机器学习算法,采用灵活贪心优化策略,直接在明确且合理的最优性目标下学习此类加法评分。将该方法应用于Epic Cosmos大型电子健康记录队列,构建用于评估出院后死亡风险的整数权重共病评分,并通过模拟研究检验其小样本性能表现。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Many clinical risk scores are deployed as additive rules with nonnegative integer points assigned to relevant binary predictive features. These integer weights not only make the score easier to use in practice but also promote sparsity in the resulting prediction model. Such risk scores are often derived by first fitting a regression model and then rounding the estimated coefficients to the nearest integer after appropriate scaling. This approach is computationally fast but does not guarantee optimality of the resulting score. Alternatively, one may search over all possible integer weights to directly optimize a value function by posing the problem as an integer programming task. However, the associated computational burden can be substantial, especially when the value function is nonconcave or even discontinuous. In this paper, we develop new machine learning algorithms that employ a flexible greedy optimization strategy to learn such additive scoring directly under explicit and sensible optimality objectives. We apply the proposed method to a large electronic health record (EHR) cohort in Epic Cosmos to construct an integer-weighted comorbidity score for measuring the risk of post-discharge mortality. We also conduct a simulation study to examine the finite-sample operating characteristics.

临床风险评分可解释性整数优化电子病历

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