arXiv:2605.19311cs.LGeess.SP2026-05中稿 · 2026 29th Internat…

对比了LSTM与模型基分类器在时间序列分类中的表现,发现模型已知时后者更优。

An Objective Performance Evaluation of the LSTM Networks in Time Series Classification

论文配图:An Objective Performance Evaluation of the LSTM Networks in Time Series Classification
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用期望最大化算法构建模型基分类器,与LSTM对比性能
  • 当数据符合模型假设时,模型基方法远超LSTM,尤其在测量噪声差异小的情况下
  • 适合了解模型结构对时间序列分类影响的研究者

深度学习的快速应用使得数据驱动模型逐渐取代经典建模算法,即使在物理规律明确的领域也是如此。尽管长短期记忆(LSTM)网络已成为时间序列分析的热门选择,但其在结构化环境下的表现是否优于建模方法仍缺乏客观评估。本文提出一个评估框架,将LSTM分类器与基于期望最大化(EM)的模型基分类器在二分类任务中进行比较。实验基于两种仅在噪声统计上不同的标量线性高斯状态空间模型,以卡尔曼滤波似然比检验(使用真实参数)作为最佳可实现性能的参考。通过蒙特卡洛模拟,在三个维度上评估:任务难度(由过程或观测噪声差异控制)、序列长度、训练数据集大小。结果表明,利用已知模型结构的EM分类器在数据符合假设时表现优异;而LSTM需更大的噪声差异才能可靠分类,且当模型仅在测量噪声上不同时,其性能始终低于参考分类器,无论序列长度或训练数据量如何。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The rapid adoption of deep learning has increasingly led to data-driven models replacing classical model-based algorithms, even in domains governed by well-understood physical laws. While data-driven models, such as long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, have become a popular choice for time-series analysis, their performance relative to model-based approaches in structured environments is rarely evaluated objectively. This paper presents a performance evaluation framework comparing an LSTM classifier against a model-based expectation maximization (EM) classifier for binary time-series classification. The evaluation is conducted on two scalar linear Gaussian state space models differing only in their noise statistics, where the Kalman filter likelihood ratio test with true parameters serves as a reference for the best achievable classification performance.Through Monte Carlo simulations, the classifiers are evaluated across three axes: task difficulty, controlled by the separation in process or measurement noise between the two models; sequence length; and training dataset size. The results show that the EM classifier, which exploits the known model structure, performs strongly when the data conform to the assumed model class. The LSTM classifier requires a larger separation in noise statistics to achieve reliable classification, and its performance saturates below the reference classifier when the models differ only in measurement noise, regardless of sequence length or training dataset size.

时间序列LSTM建模方法

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