提出新方法识别投票分歧,用更少信息揭示深层意见冲突
Efficient Elicitation of Collective Disagreements

- 用广义成对比较矩阵捕捉子集内排名概率,替代传统偏好排序
- 证明多数分歧度量需至少3个选项才能计算,成对比较不足以区分真实分歧与噪声
- 设计两种可操作的调查协议,在参与人数与认知负担间权衡
我们分析了群体在一组选项上的意见分歧结构。传统调查要么采用成对比较(简单直观),要么要求完整排序(完整表达偏好)。但成对比较无法区分结构性分歧与随机噪声。为此,我们提出分层框架,确定计算现有分歧度量所需的最小聚合偏好信息。具体地,引入‘多数矩阵’——一个广义成对比较形式,记录每个选项a在任意子集S中排名第一的概率。定义分歧度量的‘层级’为表达其所需的最小子集规模,证明了包括秩方差和分裂性在内的多种度量均位于层级3,表明成对比较不足以刻画真实分歧。此外,我们在理论与实验上展示了超越层级3的价值。为使成果可落地,设计了两种数据收集协议,探索参与者数量与认知负荷之间的权衡。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We analyze the structure of the disagreement among a population of voters over a set of alternatives. Surveys typically ask either for pairwise comparisons, simple and intuitive for participants, or full rankings over alternatives, eliciting the entire voters' preferences. Building on the observation that pairwise comparisons cannot distinguish structural disagreement from noise, we propose a stratified framework to identify the minimal aggregated preference information needed to compute a number of disagreement measures from the literature. Specifically, we introduce the plurality matrix, a generalization of pairwise comparisons that records, for every subset $S$ of alternatives, the probability that each $a \in S$ ranks first in $S$. We define the level of a disagreement measure as the smallest subset size needed to express it, showing that many existing notions, including rank-variance and divisiveness, sit at level $3$, proving that pairwise comparisons are not enough. In addition, we demonstrate the interest of going beyond level $3$ both theoretically and experimentally. To make these results actionable, we design two elicitation protocols to estimate the plurality matrix, exploring the trade-off between the number of required participants and the cognitive load requested to each of them.
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