提出可输出治疗集合的策略学习方法,自动量化推荐不确定性。
Set-Valued Policy Learning

- 用治疗集合替代单一推荐,体现决策模糊性
- 新方法保证覆盖概率,无需假设最优策略形式
- 在试管婴儿案例中验证了可靠性和临床实用性
传统治疗策略将患者特征映射为单一干预措施以最大化预期临床结果。尽管已有大量因果推断方法用于估计此类策略,但点值推荐对估计不确定、模型设定和有限样本变异高度敏感,且通常无法提供对推荐动作的信心程度。本文提出一种多治疗场景下的集合值策略学习范式,使策略输出一组合理治疗方案而非单一推荐。该框架实现内在不确定性量化,预测集合大小反映决策模糊程度。通过新颖的“最大下界”方法扩展学习延迟框架至多治疗情形,并引入“符合性策略学习”,弥合未观测到的真实最优治疗与估计最优治疗规则之间的差距。借鉴噪声标签研究思路,开发随机注入方法,确保边际覆盖性,且无需对底层黑箱最优治疗规则作假设。在合成数据和体外受精(IVF)真实应用实验中,验证了所提方法生成的策略具有鲁棒性与可操作性,自然融合临床考量,有效平衡性能与可靠性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Conventional treatment policies map patient covariates to a single recommended intervention in order to maximize expected clinical outcomes. Although a rich body of causal inference methods has been developed to estimate such policies, point-valued recommendations can be highly sensitive to estimation uncertainty, model specification, and finite-sample variability, while typically providing little guidance about how confident one should be in the recommended action. In this work, we propose a set-valued policy learning paradigm for the multiple-treatment setting, in which policies output a set of plausible treatments rather than a single recommendation. This formulation enables intrinsic uncertainty quantification, with the size of the predicted set reflecting the degree of decision ambiguity. We extend the learning-to-defer framework to multiple treatments via a novel \textit{greatest Lower Bound} method, and introduce \textit{conformal policy learning}, which bridges the gap between unobserved ground-truth optimal treatments and estimated optimal treatment rules. Drawing on insights from the noisy-label literature, we develop a randomness-injection approach that guarantees marginal coverage without requiring assumptions on underlying black-box optimal treatment rules. Through experiments on synthetic data and a real-world application to In-Vitro Fertilization (IVF), we demonstrate that our methods produce robust and actionable policies that naturally incorporate clinical considerations while effectively balancing performance and reliability.
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