arXiv:2605.20345stat.MLcs.LG2026-05

改进了隐变量高斯模型的贝叶斯推断,显著降低近似误差。

Corrected Integrated Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Inference in Latent Gaussian Models

  • 用重要性采样修正集成拉普拉斯近似带来的偏差
  • 增加采样数可逼近真实后验分布,误差明显下降
  • 适用于需梯度优化的复杂模型,如哈密顿蒙特卡洛

隐变量高斯模型(LGM)是一类流行的贝叶斯分层模型,涵盖高斯过程、空间模型及混合效应模型。对非高斯似然的LGM进行高效贝叶斯推断通常需对隐变量积分。精确积分不可行时,常用集成拉普拉斯近似(ILA)进行近似。然而,某些情形下ILA产生的后验与真实后验差异显著,影响下游应用。本文提出一种重要性采样方案,用于修正ILA引入的误差。通过增加采样数,基于ILA的后验可收敛至正确后验。该方法结合伪边际化、准蒙特卡洛和随机准蒙特卡洛等技术实现。在自动微分框架中实现,支持超参数推断中的梯度算法,特别考虑哈密顿蒙特卡洛(HMC)。在多个实际模型中验证了误差减少的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are a popular class of Bayesian hierarchical models that include Gaussian processes, as well as certain spatial models and mixed-effect models. Efficient Bayesian inference of LGMs often requires marginalizing out the latent variables. For LGMs with a non-Gaussian likelihood, exact marginalization is not possible and a popular approach is to do approximate marginalization with an integrated Laplace approximation (ILA). Using ILA produces an approximate posterior which, in some settings, can differ significantly from the correct posterior, which impacts downstream applications. We propose an importance sampling scheme to correct the error introduced by ILA. By increasing the number of samples in importance sampling, the posterior with ILA converges to the correct posterior. This idea is realized with various techniques, including pseudo-marginalization, quasi-Monte Carlo and randomized quasi-Monte Carlo. We implement our methods in an automatic differentiation framework to support gradient-based algorithms when doing inference on the hyperparameters. For the latter, we specifically consider the use of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We demonstrate the benefits of reduced error in various applied models.

贝叶斯推断高斯过程近似推断马尔可夫链

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