arXiv:2605.20494cs.LGphysics.ao-ph2026-05

生成1万年全球飓风模拟轨迹,提升极端灾害风险评估精度。

A 10,000-Year Global Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Catalog with Wind-Dependent Track Transitions (WHITS)

  • 基于历史路径片段,按风速等条件动态生成新风暴路径。
  • 重现主要海域路径密度和强风经过概率,误差小且无系统偏差。
  • 适合保险、气候风险与沿海规划,尤其关注复杂路径致灾影响。

可靠的热带气旋风险评估受限于短期且空间分布不均的历史记录,尤其是罕见高强度登陆事件,这类事件主导了保险损失。本文提出WHITS(Wind-focused Hurricane Interactive Track Simulator),一种非参数半马尔可夫模型,生成1万年全球合成热带气旋路径目录。该模型通过重采样变长历史路径片段构建新风暴,片段选择依赖于局部风速、位置、风暴年龄及前进速度。这一结构既保留历史记录的统计基础,又维持沿真实路径的系统记忆。生成目录准确再现主要热带气旋盆地的路径密度和年均强风(飓风/台风级)经过某地的概率。该模型设计用于支持气候风险分析、保险应用和极端事件研究,提供大规模、低偏差、物理上合理的风暴样本。在无法事后校正偏差的应用中,小的频率、路径或强度误差会显著影响损失估算,因此低偏差至关重要。由于损失沿路径累积,路径几何形态极为关键:环行、滞留或急转弯的风暴可能造成与直线移动截然不同的灾害范围。通过保留这些不规则形状并大幅扩展合理风暴样本,WHITS为风险分析师、保险公司和沿海规划者提供了观测数据无法获得的信息。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone risk is limited by the short and spatially uneven historical record, especially for rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss. We present WHITS, the Wind-focused Hurricane Interactive Track Simulator, a non-parametric semi-Markov model that generates a 10,000-year global synthetic catalog of tropical cyclone tracks. WHITS builds new storms by resampling variable-length segments of historical tracks, with segment choices conditioned on local wind speed, location, storm age, and forward motion. This structure preserves both the statistical grounding of the historical record and a form of system memory along realized storm pathways. The resulting catalog reproduces observed track density and the annual probability that hurricane- or typhoon-force winds pass a given location across the major tropical cyclone basins. WHITS is designed to support climate risk analysis, insurance applications, and extreme event research over operational planning time scales by providing a large, low-bias sample of physically plausible storms. This low-bias design is important for applications in which introduced bias cannot simply be corrected after the fact and small errors in storm frequency, track, or intensity can substantially affect loss estimates. Because loss accumulates along the storm path, track geometry matters: storms that loop, stall, or turn sharply can produce damage footprints that differ fundamentally from straight-moving events. By preserving these irregular shapes while greatly expanding the sample of plausible storms, WHITS provides risk analysts, insurers, and coastal planners with information unavailable from observations alone.

飓风模拟风险评估路径生成极端事件

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