arXiv:2605.20716cs.LGstat.ML2026-05

用决策路径模式识别可靠树,动态加权提升随机森林准确率

Decision-Path Patterns as Tree Reliability Signals: Path-based Adaptive Weighting for Random Forest Classification

论文配图:Decision-Path Patterns as Tree Reliability Signals: Path-based Adaptive Weighting for Random Forest Classification
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过决策路径结构判断每棵树的可靠性,实现实例自适应加权
  • 在36个数据集上平均提升0.99个百分点,显著优于传统随机森林
  • 特别有效降低类别偏差,适合需要高精度和公平性的分类任务

随机森林通过不同随机特征空间构建每棵树,但统一投票无法纠正某些区域因错误表示树占多数而导致的可减少误差。本文提出利用每棵树决策路径的结构模式作为实例自适应的可靠性信号,识别并差异化加权更可靠的树。推理时,样本通过每棵树的根到叶路径决定预测结果,路径级可靠性提供了比树级加权更精细的粒度。实验表明该信号真实反映树决策的可靠性,且在36个二分类基准上显著提升随机森林准确率(威尔科克森检验p < 0.0001)。典型纠错方法的失败模式——类别召回回归,在本方法中表现为0次少数类召回下降与1次多数类召回下降(阈值0.2个百分点),表明偏差减少而非类别权衡。进一步量化了仅从拟合的随机森林中可获取的可减少误差,其与各数据集增益高度相关(皮尔逊相关系数r = +0.840, p < 0.0001)。对符合条件的数据集,该方法平均提升0.99个百分点,且所有数据集均严格胜出(7/0/0);可选增强机制进一步提升至+1.48个百分点。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Random forests construct each tree with a different, randomised representation of the feature space. Their uniform voting cannot correct errors in regions where trees with incorrect representations probabilistically outnumber correct ones, even when the ensemble collectively holds enough correct information - a reducible error that this paper addresses. We propose using the structural pattern of each tree's decision path as an instance-adaptive reliability signal to identify and differentially weight the more reliable trees. At inference, a random forest reaches its prediction through the root-to-leaf path the sample traverses in each tree, so path-level reliability offers a finer granularity than tree-level weighting can access. We show that this signal reflects the actual reliability of each tree's decision, and that using it yields a statistically significant accuracy improvement over RF on 36 binary classification benchmarks (Wilcoxon p < 0.0001). Class-recall regression - the typical failure mode of RF correction methods - is measured: zero minority-recall regressions and a single majority-recall regression at the 0.2 pp threshold, indicating bias reduction rather than a class trade-off. We further quantify the reducible error accessible to the method from the fitted RF alone; this estimate correlates strongly with per-dataset gain (Pearson r = +0.840, p < 0.0001). On the qualifying group it identifies, the method delivers a mean +0.99 pp accuracy improvement with strict wins on every dataset (7/0/0); an optional amplification mechanism further raises this to +1.48 pp.

随机森林决策路径自适应加权偏差控制

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