提出可复现的AutoML框架,优化医疗风险预测模型配置。
A Reproducible Log-Driven AutoML Framework for Interpretable Pipeline Optimization in Healthcare Risk Prediction

- 将模型流程优化建模为可追踪的配置系统,保证结果可复现。
- 在1.8万+配置中发现少数组件组合主导性能,集成模型达F1 0.94。
- 揭示不同数据集需不同策略,简化搜索空间提升效率与可解释性。
准确的疾病风险预测面临特征异质性、数据有限和类别不平衡的挑战。本文提出yvsoucom-iterkit,一个确定性的AutoML框架,将管道优化建模为配置级系统,具备完全可复现性和可追溯的执行日志,支持对组件归因、交互、相似性及跨种子鲁棒性的系统分析。在Pima糖尿病和中风数据集上进行超过18,000个管道配置的实验表明,搜索空间具有结构性但部分冗余,性能由少数相互作用的组件主导。集成模型表现稳定,在Pima上达到Weighted-F1 0.89,Stroke上达0.94;但宏平均F1在Pima约为0.88,在Stroke因严重不平衡下降至0.6560。跨种子实验显示,集成模型相比单模型降低方差。弗里德曼检验(p < 0.05)证实配置间排名存在显著差异。基于组件归因、交互与相似性分析,最优配置设计呈现数据集依赖行为:Pima数据集可通过简化搜索空间提高计算效率,分割比例起关键作用;而Stroke数据集需增强不平衡处理策略,如RandomOverSampler将宏平均F1从0.6560提升至0.6766。研究证明,通过合理约束搜索空间至高影响组件,可提升性能、稳定性与可解释性,同时降低不必要的搜索复杂度。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate disease risk prediction is challenged by heterogeneous features, limited data, and class imbalance. This study presents yvsoucom-iterkit, a deterministic AutoML framework that models pipeline optimization as a configuration-level system with full reproducibility and traceable execution logs, enabling systematic analysis of component attribution, interactions, similarity, and cross-seed robustness. Experiments on the Pima Indians Diabetes and Stroke datasets across more than 18,000 pipeline configurations reveal a structured yet partially redundant search space, where performance is dominated by a small subset of interacting components. Ensemble models achieve stable performance, reaching a Weighted-F1 of 0.89 on Pima and 0.94 on Stroke. Macro-F1 reaches approximately 0.88 on Pima but drops to 0.6560 on Stroke due to severe imbalance. Cross-seed experiments show that ensembles reduce variance compared to single models. Friedman testing ($p < 0.05$) confirms significant ranking differences across configurations. Based on analysis of component attribution, interaction, and similarity, optimal configuration design reveals dataset-dependent behavior. For the Pima dataset, computational efficiency benefits from simplified search spaces where redundant components can be removed, with split ratio playing a key role. In contrast, the Stroke dataset requires enhanced imbalance-aware strategies, where RandomOverSampler improves Macro-F1 from 0.6560 to 0.6766. These findings demonstrate that effective AutoML optimization is achieved through optimal configuration design, where carefully constraining the search space to high-impact components can improve performance, stability, and interpretability while reducing unnecessary search complexity.
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