arXiv:2605.21550cs.LG2026-05

统一建模用电负荷峰值时间与强度,提升预测精度。

PeakFocus: Bridging Peak Localization and Intensity Regression via a Unified Multi-Scale Framework for Electricity Load Forecasting

论文配图:PeakFocus: Bridging Peak Localization and Intensity Regression via a Unified Multi-Scale Framework for Electricity Load Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 联合优化峰值定位与强度回归,打破传统两阶段限制。
  • 在真实数据集上,峰值时间误差降低18.3%,强度误差下降22.1%。
  • 适合电力调度、风险预警等需要精准峰值预测的场景。

用电负荷峰值预测(ELPF)需同时准确预测峰值出现的时间与强度,是电网调度与风险管理的关键。现有方法存在三大缺陷:首先,采用先预测后定位的两阶段范式,割裂了时间定位与强度回归的关联;其次,多尺度表征冲突导致峰值误判与时间错位;第三,强度回归中缺乏峰值时间上下文,使预测受全局平滑趋势主导,产生强度低估。为此,我们提出PeakFocus统一框架:(i) 统一感知管道(UPAP)采用三重混合损失联合监督,并设计容差评估协议;(ii) 多尺度混合峰值定位器(MSM-PL)利用粗粒度特征缓解局部波动干扰,通过级联机制注入细粒度特征以解决时间错位;(iii) 位置感知解码器(LAD)将峰值时间上下文显式注入强度回归过程,抑制强度平滑,提升峰值估计。在公开的Electricity(ELC)数据集和工业级全球大规模用电负荷(WLEL)数据集上的实验表明,PeakFocus在时间精度和强度估计上均显著优于基线模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Electricity load peak forecasting (ELPF), simultaneously predicting peak timing and intensity, is a prerequisite for effective grid scheduling and risk management. However, existing methods face three limitations. First, they adopt a two-stage predict-then-locate paradigm, which severs the link between temporal localization and intensity regression. Second, they still struggle with the multi-scale representation conflict, leading to peak misjudgment and timing misalignment. Third, the lack of explicit peak timing context during intensity regression causes intensity smoothing because predictions are dominated by global smoothing trends. To address these limitations, we propose PeakFocus, a unified framework for ELPF. (i) A Unified Peak-Aware Pipeline (UPAP) utilizes a triple hybrid loss to jointly supervise temporal localization and intensity regression, alongside a tolerance-based evaluation protocol. (ii) A Multi-Scale Mixing Peak Locator (MSM-PL) exploits coarse-grained features to mitigate peak misjudgment caused by local fluctuations, and injects them into fine-grained features via a cascade mechanism to resolve timing misalignment. (iii) A Location-Aware Decoder (LAD) injects peak timing context into the intensity regression process, providing explicit guidance to counteract intensity smoothing and improve peak intensity estimation. Extensive experiments on the public Electricity (ELC) dataset and our industrial-scale World Large-scale Electricity Load (WLEL) dataset show that PeakFocus outperforms baselines in both timing precision and intensity estimation.

负荷预测峰值检测多尺度

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