用机器学习预测儿童重症抗生素干预时机,提升用药精准性。
Benchmarking Machine Learning Architectures for Antimicrobial Stewardship in Pediatric ICUs

- 对比表格、序列、图结构模型在不同时间粒度下的表现
- 序列模型在24小时粗粒度下精度更高,但校准性差
- 目标设计和校准比模型复杂度更重要,适合临床决策支持
抗菌药物管理(AMS)在儿科重症监护室(PICU)至关重要,因诊断不确定性常导致广谱抗生素使用,加剧耐药性和长期危害。机器学习可从电子病历数据中识别个体化干预机会,但以往研究多集中于成人且依赖静态表格数据。本研究在公开数据集和机构私有队列上系统评估了PICU中抗生素干预预测的多种架构。定义四类减少抗生素暴露的临床代理目标:静脉转口服、降阶梯治疗、停药及短程治疗。在统一评估框架下,比较表格、序列与图结构的时序模型在多时间分辨率的表现。结果表明,预测性能主要受目标流行率和数据特征影响,而非模型复杂度。序列模型在24小时粗粒度下优于表格方法,改善了精确率-召回率权衡;更细粒度建模增益有限。然而,其校准性较差,简单表格模型提供更可靠的概率估计。多任务学习仅带来微弱改进,暗示各目标间共享结构有限。研究强调目标设计、时序表示与校准在临床机器学习中的关键作用,为开发可靠儿科抗菌管理决策支持系统提供实用指导。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) is critical in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs), where diagnostic uncertainty often drives broad-spectrum antibiotic use, increasing antimicrobial resistance and potential long-term harms. Machine learning offers a promising approach for identifying patient-level opportunities for stewardship interventions from electronic health record data, yet prior work has focused largely on adult populations and static tabular representations. We present a systematic benchmarking study of AMS intervention prediction in the PICU across a public dataset and a private institutional cohort. We define four clinically relevant proxy targets for reducing antibiotic exposure: intravenous-to-oral switching, de-escalation, discontinuation, and short-course therapy. Under a unified evaluation framework, we compare tabular, sequence-based, and graph-based temporal models at multiple temporal resolutions. We find that predictive performance is driven primarily by target prevalence and dataset characteristics rather than model complexity. Sequence models improve the precision-recall trade-off over tabular approaches at coarse (24-hour) resolution, while finer temporal modeling provides limited additional benefit. However, these gains come at the cost of poorer calibration, with simpler tabular models yielding more reliable probability estimates. Multi-task learning produces only marginal improvements, suggesting limited shared structure across stewardship targets. Our findings highlight the importance of target design, temporal representation, and calibration in clinical machine learning, and provide practical guidance for developing reliable decision support systems for pediatric AMS.
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