用7秒地震初动波数据实时分类震级,精度超76%。
Real-Time Earthquake Magnitude Classification from Initial P-Waves: Models, Dataset, and Comparative Analysis for South Asia

- 基于Transformer的模型分析单站垂直分量初动波
- 达76.23%准确率,4.8毫秒延迟,适合实时预警
- 新数据集含7318个南亚地震事件,覆盖5类震级
快速估算地震震级对有效地震预警系统至关重要,可挽救生命并减少经济损失。本文提出一项全面研究,仅使用单个台站垂直分量的初始7秒P波窗口进行震级分类。对比了六种机器学习方法,涵盖传统模型与前沿深度学习架构。同时构建了一个包含7,318个南亚地震事件的新数据集,按里氏震级划分为五类:轻微(3.0-3.9)、轻度(4.0-4.9)、中等(5.0-5.9)、强烈(6.0-6.9)和严重(≥7.0)。实验表明,深度学习模型显著优于传统方法。基于Transformer的架构达到76.23%的标准准确率和81.56%的自适应准确率,推理延迟仅为4.8毫秒。自适应准确率用于评估震级边界附近的固有不确定性。结果表明,注意力机制结合自适应分类能有效捕捉地震信号的时间动态,该架构在罕见强震事件上也表现出良好泛化能力,尽管地震目录中高震级事件本就稀少。自适应准确率提供了更真实的性能评估,表明该方法具备实时部署潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Rapid earthquake magnitude estimation is crucial for effective early warning systems that can save lives and reduce economic damage. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of magnitude classification using only the vertical component of the initial 7-second P-wave window from a single station. We compare six machine learning approaches that range from traditional models to state-of-the-art deep learning architectures. We also curated a novel dataset of 7,318 earthquake events in South Asia. The dataset was categorized into five Richter-scale classes: slight (3.0-3.9), light (4.0-4.9), moderate (5.0-5.9), strong (6.0-6.9) and severe (>= 7.0). Our experiments show that deep learning models substantially outperform traditional approaches. Our Transformer based architecture achieved 76.23% standard accuracy and 81.56% adaptive accuracy with 4.8 ms inference latency. The adaptive-accuracy metric is introduced for the inherent uncertainty in magnitude estimation of near class boundaries. These results indicate that the attention mechanisms in Transformers combined with adaptive classification effectively capture the temporal dynamics of seismic signals. The architectural advantage facilitates promising generalization to rare high-magnitude events, despite the inherent data scarcity characteristic of seismic catalogs. The adaptive accuracy provides a more realistic assessment of model performance, and the result suggests viability for real-time deployment.
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