arXiv:2605.22848cs.CEcs.LG2026-05

用神经网络模拟作物模型,快1000倍还带不确定性,发现181种高产玉米性状组合。

From Simulation to Discovery: AI Enabled Probabilistic Emulation of Mechanistic Crop Systems

论文配图:From Simulation to Discovery: AI Enabled Probabilistic Emulation of Mechanistic Crop Systems
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用神经网络建模APSIM,复现13个生长过程,相关系数达0.93
  • 200万次模拟训练,实现跨基因、土壤、管理的高效探索
  • 可发现传统模型无法完成的高产性状组合,适合育种与气候适应研究

全球粮食安全依赖于对作物应对气候变化的预测,但基于机制的作物模型计算成本过高,难以大规模分析基因型与环境互作。本文开发了针对APSIM的概率神经模拟器,在13个输出上以高保真度(R²=0.93)复现关键玉米生长过程,同时将仿真时间降低数个数量级。该模型基于两百万次覆盖多样遗传、土壤和管理条件的模拟训练,并结合卷积生成的合成天气模型,生成物理一致的气候序列,可在无需昂贵贝叶斯推断的情况下提供校准后的预测不确定性。在10万种性状配置、爱荷华州与伊利诺伊州六种土壤环境及2100年两种排放情景下进行应用,识别出181种在所有测试条件下均保持高产的玉米性状组合——这一分析在纯机制模型下不可行。进一步发现辐射利用效率和温度驱动的根系动态是产量韧性的主导因素。值得注意的是,不同地区投影的产量分布差异显著,部分低产区域在气候变化下反而出现增产,表明气候变化可能以非直观方式重塑区域产量潜力。结果表明,具备不确定性感知的模拟框架使机制化作物模拟从计算瓶颈转变为按需发现引擎,可实现全基因型-环境-管理空间的大规模探查,远超传统过程模型能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Global food security depends on predicting crop responses to climate variability, yet process based crop models remain too computationally expensive for large scale exploration of genotype and environment interactions. Here we develop a probabilistic neural emulator of APSIM that reproduces key maize growth processes across 13 outputs with high fidelity (with R^2 of 0.93) while reducing simulation time by several orders of magnitude. Trained on two million simulations spanning diverse genetic, soil, and management conditions, and augmented with a convolutional synthetic weather generator that produces physically consistent climate sequences, the framework enables scalable exploration of crop responses under realistic and diverse environmental inputs while providing calibrated predictive uncertainty without costly Bayesian inference. Applying this framework across 100,000 trait configurations, six soil environments in Iowa and Illinois, and climate projections through the year 2100 under two emissions scenarios, we identify 181 maize trait combinations that consistently maintain high yield across all tested conditionsan analysis infeasible with the mechanistic model alone. We further show that radiation use efficiency and temperature driven root dynamics are dominant drivers of yield resilience. Notably, projected yield distributions vary substantially across locations, with some lower productivity sites exhibiting yield increases under future climate scenarios, indicating that climate change may reshape regional yield potential in nonintuitive ways. These results demonstrate how uncertainty aware emulation transforms mechanistic crop simulation from a computational bottleneck into an on demand discovery engine, one capable of interrogating the full genotype, environment and management space at a scale no process-based model can match.

作物模拟神经网络气候变化育种优化

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