arXiv:2605.23017cs.LGcs.GT2026-05

首次实现离散属性的近似校准,突破传统方法复杂度瓶颈。

Smoothed Elicitation Complexity for Approximate $Γ$-calibration of Discrete Classification Tasks

  • 用 Lipschitz 连续属性作为桥梁,解决离散属性校准难题
  • 将校准复杂度从与类别数 $n$ 指数相关降至维度 $d$
  • 适用于模式、排序等常见离散属性,适合可信机器学习研究者

评估机器学习模型可信度的重要方法之一是校准性。在二分类场景中,若预测概率与实际结果一致,则模型为校准的。直接将二分类校准扩展至多分类时,预测空间随类别数 $n$ 指数增长,导致复杂度爆炸。Noarov 和 Roth(2023)提出基于输出分布性质的多分类校准,将复杂度从 $n$ 降至性质维度 $d$,即其可诱发复杂度。然而,此前近似性质校准研究多限于连续标量性质,而许多实际关注的性质(如众数、排名)为离散性质。本文首次通过引入 Lipschitz 连续性质作为中介,刻画强有序离散性质的近似校准。同时,我们构造了用于设计这些 Lipschitz 性质的算法,并证明其可通过后处理还原原始离散性质,从而确立了强有序离散性质的 Lipschitz 可诱发复杂度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

One prominent method of evaluating machine learning model trustworthiness is the notion of calibration. In the binary outcome setting, a probabilistic predictor is calibrated if outcomes are realized according to a model's distributional prediction, conditioned on this prediction. Straightforward extensions of binary calibration definitions to probabilistic multiclass classifiers suffer from an exponential complexity blowup as the space of predictions grows exponentially in the number of classes $n$. As a remedy, Noarov and Roth (2023) propose multiclass calibration with predictions that are properties of the outcome distribution, reducing complexity from growing in the number of classes $n$ to the dimension $d$ of the property, called its elicitation complexity. Previous work on approximate property calibration is generally limited to continuous scalar properties, despite many relevant properties of interest being discrete, like the mode or rankings. We characterize the approximate property calibration of discrete properties which are strongly orderable by using Lipschitz continuous properties as an intermediary. This work is the first to our knowledge to provide approximate calibration results for discrete properties. Along the way, we characterize the Lipschitz elicitation complexity of strongly orderable discrete properties by constructing algorithms for designing these Lipschitz properties, which we prove can be post-processed to obtain the original discrete property.

模型校准离散属性可诱发性可信AI

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