arXiv:2605.23146cs.LGcs.AI2026-05中稿 · Finding the Frame …

新框架让智能体在不确定环境下更稳健,比传统强化学习表现更好。

Infra-Bayesian Reinforcement Learning Agents Outperform Classical RL For Worst-Case Robustness

论文配图:Infra-Bayesian Reinforcement Learning Agents Outperform Classical RL For Worst-Case Robustness
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用最坏情况评估替代概率平均,应对无法准确建模的环境。
  • 在存在未知预测者时,最坏情况后悔值显著低于传统方法。
  • 适合追求安全、鲁棒的AI系统设计者,尤其涉及人类或复杂互动场景。

经典强化学习假设环境行为独立于智能体策略,但在非可实现情境中——如与预测器、人类、其他AI或制度交互时——该假设失效。此时模型无法覆盖真实世界,导致贝叶斯方法产生自信却错误的推断、不可靠决策及无界后悔。为解决此问题,本文引入反贝叶斯主义(Infra-Bayesianism):区分普通概率不确定性(可设定先验)与奈特不确定性(无法构建先验)。该框架通过评估动作的最坏情况结果而非后验期望进行决策。我们首次实现了一种针对有限结果无状态决策问题的反贝叶斯强化学习架构,智能体维护一组不精确假设,使用反贝叶斯条件更新,并基于最坏情况期望选择动作。在奈特不确定性环境中,其最坏情况后悔值低于经典强化学习代理;在纽科姆难题中,反贝叶斯智能体选择了最优策略,优于经典决策理论方法。结果表明,该框架有助于构建在模型误设和策略依赖不确定性下仍保持鲁棒的强化学习智能体。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Classical reinforcement learning assumes the agent interacts with a fixed environment whose behavior does not depend on the agent's policy. This assumption breaks down in non-realizable settings where other actors might anticipate the agent's behavior, including environments crucial to AI safety, where the agent interacts with predictors, humans, other AI agents, and institutions. In such settings, the agent's model class fails to capture the world in which it operates. Under such misspecification, classical Bayesian methods can produce confidently wrong posteriors, unreliable decisions, and unbounded regret, as realizability fails to obtain. Infra-Bayesianism is a decision-theoretic framework that addresses these failures by distinguishing ordinary probabilistic uncertainty, where priors can be reasonably chosen, from Knightian uncertainty, where no grounds exist for the construction of such a prior. It does so by evaluating actions on their worst-case outcomes, rather than from posterior expectations or weighted averaging. We present the first proof-of-concept implementation of an infra-Bayesian reinforcement learning architecture for finite-outcome stateless decision problems. Our agent maintains a set of imprecise hypotheses, updates them using infra-Bayesian conditioning, and selects actions by maximizing worst-case expected value. We apply this implementation of the infra-Bayesian maximin decision process to an environment with Knightian uncertainty, and demonstrate a lower worst-case regret as compared to classical reinforcement learning agents. We also investigate Newcomb's problem and show that the infra-Bayesian agent picks the optimal strategy, outperforming classical decision theory agents. Our results provide a step towards reinforcement learning agents that remain robust under model misspecification and policy-dependent uncertainty.

强化学习鲁棒性决策理论安全AI

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