arXiv:2605.23306physics.soc-phcs.LG2026-05中稿 · ITSC 2026

用物理启发的自旋场模型,实时识别交通相变前兆。

SpinFlow: A Physics-Informed Spin Field Framework for Traffic Phase Inference and Transition Detection

  • 借鉴自旋模型,用潜变量动态刻画交通相位分布
  • 在4个真实数据集上相位预测准确率达0.940,相变点定位精度提升超94%
  • 无需先验路网信息,适合智能交通主动管理场景

主动交通管理常受限于传统宏观模型和固定经验阈值,无法捕捉亚稳态相位前兆,导致干预滞后。为此,我们提出SpinFlow,一种融合Kerner三相理论与统计物理的物理信息自旋场框架,实现连续宏观交通相位推断。受海森堡模型启发,SpinFlow通过潜在自旋向量与竞争平衡映射,参数化空间变化的相位权重,使同步流自然涌现。基于物理正则化期望最大化算法,从高分辨率轨迹中反演潜结构,联合优化自旋场,同时软性约束质量守恒与空间平滑性。我们引入相平衡度(PED)量化结构对齐程度并拓扑定位相变点。在四个真实轨迹数据集上,SpinFlow达到最高0.940的R²,PED下降94.9%-100%,生成的可解释相位图在前向准确性、物理一致性与瓶颈定位上均优于三种异构基线。SpinFlow无需先验网络拓扑即可定位拥堵萌发点,提供数据驱动且物理一致的主动交通管理触发机制。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Active traffic management (ATM) is frequently hindered by traditional macroscopic models and rigid empirical thresholds that fail to capture metastable phase precursors, resulting in delayed, reactive interventions. To address this, we propose SpinFlow, a physics-informed spin-field framework unifying Kerner's three-phase theory with statistical physics for continuous macroscopic traffic phase inference. Inspired by the Heisenberg model, SpinFlow parametrizes spatially varying phase weights via a latent spin vector and a competitive-equilibrium mapping, allowing synchronized flow to emerge naturally. A physics-regularized Expectation-Maximization algorithm inverts this latent structure from high-resolution trajectories, jointly optimizing the spin field while softly enforcing mass conservation and spatial smoothness. We introduce the Phase Equilibrium Degree (PED) to quantify structural alignment and topologically localize phase-transition points. Across four real-world trajectory datasets, SpinFlow achieves $R_{q}^{2}$ up to 0.940, PED drops of 94.9-100%, and interpretable phase maps that outperform three heterogeneous baselines on forward accuracy, physics consistency, and bottleneck localization. SpinFlow pinpoints congestion nucleation without prior network topology, yielding a data-driven, physics-consistent trigger for ATM.

交通建模物理信息相变检测自旋场

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