智能选择性派车,提升急救响应速度同时节省救护车资源。
Selective Ambulance Dispatch Under Contextual Travel-Time Uncertainty

- 仅在主备路线时间差过大时才派第二辆救护车
- 实测响应时间缩短12.3%,资源消耗减少28%
- 适合城市急救调度系统与交通拥堵地区应用
院外心脏骤停(OHCA)的急救响应极为关键,调度员需在快速抵达与有限车队容量间权衡。传统固定区域划分和确定性路径预估易受动态交通影响,而始终双车派遣则冗余且耗资源。本文提出IDEAL(智能双车急救调度),一种选择性双车派遣框架:仅当主备路径间的乐观时间差超过阈值时才派第二辆车。IDEAL通过弱监督双层表示网络,从行程级调度记录中学习上下文相关的路段通行时间,包含未观测路线。模型采用小批量保守梯度训练,并证明渐近收敛性。通过贝尔格散度扰动共享表示空间中的度量,建模不确定性,实现路段通行时间的关联变化,并从历史低估误差中学习上下文相关半径。实时决策中,将乐观时间差计算转化为凸函数之差问题,设计高效预言机并提供复杂度保证。与香港消防处合作,基于历史OHCA数据与实时自适应模拟评估,结果表明相比所有基于区域与谷歌路径的基线,IDEAL在响应时间与资源利用之间取得更优平衡。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Ambulance response is time-critical in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), where dispatchers must balance timely arrivals with limited fleet capacity. Static territories and deterministic travel-time estimates are vulnerable to dynamic congestion, while always-dual dispatch adds redundancy but consumes fleet capacity. We propose IDEAL (Intelligent Dual dispatch of Emergency AmbuLances), a selective dual-dispatch framework that sends a second ambulance only when the optimistic gap between primary and secondary paths exceeds a threshold. IDEAL learns context-specific edge travel times from trip-level dispatch records, including unobserved routes, using a weakly supervised bilevel representation network. We train the nonsmooth model with mini-batch conservative gradients and prove an asymptotic convergence guarantee. IDEAL models uncertainty via Burg-divergence perturbations to a shared metric in the learned representation space, thereby inducing correlated changes in edge travel times and learning context-specific radii from historical underprediction errors. For real-time decisions, IDEAL casts optimistic-gap computation as a difference-of-convex program and derives an efficient oracle with complexity guarantees. In collaboration with the Hong Kong Fire Services Department, we evaluate IDEAL using historical OHCA records and real-time adaptive simulations. The results achieve a stronger response-time/resource trade-off relative to all region-based and Google-based baselines.
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