arXiv:2605.23470cs.LGcs.AI2026-05

从零散快照中重建个体动态轨迹,突破传统方法的局限。

Learning Individual Dynamics from Sparse Cross-Sectional Snapshots

论文配图:Learning Individual Dynamics from Sparse Cross-Sectional Snapshots
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用静态个体特征锚定潜在动态,结合概率建模恢复连续轨迹。
  • 在稀疏快照下性能媲美依赖完整轨迹的先进模型。
  • 适用于老龄化、疫情传播等缺乏连续数据的场景。

预测动态系统随时间演变——如个体衰老、疫情传播或物理系统退化——通常需要密集的纵向追踪。当仅有极稀疏或完全横断面数据时,推断个体化的连续时间轨迹本质上是病态问题。现有方法被迫权衡:序列模型(如隐式微分方程)需密集纵向数据,而横断面方法(如最优传输、基于流匹配的方法)仅能映射群体,丢失个体动态。本文证明这一二元对立可被打破。我们提出CADENCE,一种严谨的概率框架,通过将潜在动态锚定于静态个体特征,从孤立快照中恢复连续个体轨迹。我们提供了单时间点轨迹推断的新型可识别性保证。通过结合基于得分的空间编码器(双射概率流微分方程)以消除同胚歧义,以及软专家混合路由机制(SMoE),我们证明个体动力学参数与路由函数可联合识别。在涵盖物理系统至真实生物数据的一系列基准测试中,仅使用稀疏快照与上下文结构训练的CADENCE,性能达到或超过依赖完整轨迹数据的最先进序列模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting how a dynamical unit evolves over time - how an individual ages, an epidemic spreads, or a physical system degrades - typically requires dense longitudinal tracking. When only extremely sparse or entirely cross-sectional data is available, inferring individualized, continuous-time trajectories is fundamentally ill-posed. Existing methods force a strict compromise: sequence models (e.g. latent ODEs) require dense longitudinal data, while cross-sectional methods (e.g. optimal transport, flow matching-based) map aggregate populations, losing individual dynamics. In this paper, we demonstrate that this dichotomy can be broken. We introduce CADENCE, a principled probabilistic framework that recovers continuous individual trajectories from isolated snapshots by anchoring latent dynamics to static, individual-level contexts. We provide novel identifiability guarantees for single-timepoint trajectory inference. By combining a score-based spatial encoder (bijective Probability Flow ODE) to eliminate diffeomorphic ambiguities with a Soft Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) router, we show that individual dynamical parameters and routing function are jointly identifiable. Across a suite of benchmarks spanning physical systems to real-world biological data, CADENCE, trained strictly on extremely sparse snapshots with context structure, matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art sequential models trained on dense, full-trajectory data.

动态建模稀疏数据轨迹推断概率框架

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