基于作物特异性物候响应,提升多作物产量预测精度。
PhenoYieldNet: Learning Crop-Aware Phenological Responses for Multi-Crop Yield Prediction

- 构建作物物候银行与注意力模块,动态捕捉作物生长周期特征。
- 在多作物数据集上显著优于现有方法,跨区域泛化能力强。
- 适合农业预测、气候影响评估等研究者参考使用。
精准的作物产量预测对可持续农业和全球粮食安全至关重要。现有方法多针对单一作物设计,难以在不同作物间泛化,且未充分考虑复杂天气模式下作物物候响应的动态特性。本文提出PhenoYieldNet,一种多作物产量预测框架,通过显式建模作物对时间驱动因素的响应来学习作物特定的物候规律。具体地,设计了包含作物物候嵌入库(CPB)与作物物候注意力(CPA)模块的作物感知时序解码器,利用查询引导注意力机制,提取最相关的物候模式;CPA模块进一步捕捉多尺度趋势与变化,构建时序上下文,实现不同生长阶段的动态注意力调整。为获得鲁棒且可泛化的特征,编码器采用预训练基础模型初始化,并通过自监督时间对比适应策略,对齐农业时序动态。在多个多作物数据集上的大量实验表明,该方法显著优于现有先进方法,在不同区域和作物间均表现出强泛化能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate crop yield prediction is crucial for sustainable agriculture and global food security. While existing methods are predominantly developed for single-crop prediction, they often struggle to generalize across diverse crop types, without addressing the unique crop phenological responses that are dynamically modulated by complex weather patterns. In this paper, we propose PhenoYieldNet, a multi-crop yield prediction framework that learns crop-specific phenology by explicitly modeling their responses with temporal drivers. Specifically, we develop a crop-aware temporal decoder consisting of a Crop Phenology Bank (CPB) and a Crop Phenology Attention (CPA) module. The CPB integrates a set of learnable embeddings, which leverage a query to guide the CPA module to learn the most relevant phenology patterns for the specific crop. And the CPA module explicitly captures multi-scale trend and variation components to construct temporal contexts, enabling the model to dynamically adjust the attention across different phenological stages. To learn robust and generalizable features for multi-crop prediction, the encoder is initialized with a pre-trained foundation model, and further adapted via a self-supervised Temporal Contrastive Adaptation strategy to align with agricultural temporal dynamics. Extensive experiments conducted on multi-crop datasets indicate that our proposed method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, exhibiting strong generalization capabilities across different regions and crops.
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