arXiv:2605.23905q-fin.GNcs.AI2026-05

AI投资策略越普及,超额收益越快消失,形成自我毁灭循环。

AI-Driven Alpha Decay: Algorithmic Homogenization, Reflexive Signal Erosion, and the Paradox of Intelligent Markets

论文配图:AI-Driven Alpha Decay: Algorithmic Homogenization, Reflexive Signal Erosion, and the Paradox of Intelligent Markets
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用数学模型揭示AI投资导致信号衰减的三大机制
  • 当前信号半衰期仅18个月,远低于AI前的5-7年
  • 适合关注市场效率与系统性风险的研究者

我们证明,大规模采用AI投资策略具有内在自毁性。随着AI普及,信号拥挤、表演性信号衰减和红皇后竞争三重机制共同压缩超额收益。推导出阿尔法半衰期公式 $h(ϕ) = \ln 2/[θ+ δ(ϕ)]$,其中 $δ(ϕ) = Nϕρa/λ(ϕ)$ 为AI加速衰减项,随采纳率 $ϕ$ 呈凸递减。在当前采纳水平 $ϕ\approx 0.7$、相关性 $ρ\approx 0.6$ 下,模型预测信号半衰期为18个月,相较AI前的5-7年显著缩短。理论证明四点:第一,阿尔法半衰期定理——信号寿命随AI采纳率凸递减;第二,信号灭绝级联——超过临界阈值 $ϕ^*$ 后,一类信号衰减会加速对剩余信号的竞争;第三,红皇后不可能性——在单一化均衡中,即使投入巨量AI,净阿尔法恒为零;第四,脆弱性-效率权衡——最大化价格发现的采纳率高于最小化系统脆弱性的采纳率。实证验证基于美国证监会13F文件(9950万持仓,2013–2024),显示模拟机构持仓收敛度提升42%。模拟对冲基金回报动态显示,采用AI的基金间横向分散度下降;通过模拟2010年闪崩,揭示其脆弱性后果。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We show that AI-driven investment strategies are inherently self-defeating at scale. As AI adoption rises, three mutually reinforcing channels -- signal crowding, performative signal erosion, and Red Queen competition -- compress excess returns. We derive the alpha half-life $h(ϕ) = \ln 2/[θ+ δ(ϕ)]$, where $θ$ is the natural mean-reversion rate and $δ(ϕ) = Nϕρa/λ(ϕ)$ is the AI-accelerated decay component, which is convex-decreasing in adoption. At current adoption levels ($ϕ\approx 0.7$, $ρ\approx 0.6$), the model implies signal half-lives of 18 months versus 5-7 years pre-AI. We establish four theoretical results. First, the alpha half-life theorem: signal lifespans are convex-decreasing in AI adoption. Second, a signal extinction cascade: beyond a critical threshold $ϕ^*$, the decay of one signal class triggers accelerated competition for remaining signals. Third, a Red Queen impossibility: in the monoculture equilibrium, net alpha is identically zero despite heavy AI investment. Fourth, a fragility-efficiency tradeoff: the adoption level maximizing price discovery strictly exceeds the level minimizing systemic fragility. Empirical validation calibrates portfolio convergence to SEC Form 13F filing patterns (99.5 million holdings, 2013-2024), documenting that simulated institutional portfolio convergence increases by 42% over the sample period. We examine simulated hedge fund return dynamics showing declining cross-sectional dispersion among AI-adopting funds, and simulate the 2010 Flash Crash to illustrate fragility consequences.

量化投资市场效率系统性风险AI金融

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