用博弈论建模投资者互动,提升股票价格预测精度
Game-Theoretic Modeling of Heterogeneous Investor Interactions for Stock Price Forecasting

- 将博弈论融入异构图结构,动态捕捉投资者策略交互
- 在两个真实数据集上优于当前最优方法,显著提升预测效果
- 适合量化交易与金融建模方向的研究者参考
准确的股票价格预测一直是金融科技领域的重要挑战,直接影响量化交易与投资决策。现有方法多依赖静态先验假设,仅建模个股时间依赖性或跨股票空间依赖性,未能充分揭示驱动股价波动的复杂市场动态。为此,我们提出一种新颖的博弈论建模方法,通过在异构图结构中嵌入博弈机制,精细刻画不同投资者针对目标股票的动态战略互动。同时引入时间位置编码,反映不同时步内博弈事件对未来股价变动的差异化影响。借助异构图网络,以投资者博弈为代理,实现市场复杂动态的建模与全节点实时信息传播及更新。在两个真实世界基准数据集上的大量实验表明,该方法有效超越现有先进股票价格预测方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate stock price forecasting has consistently remained a pivotal yet challenging FinTech task that underpins quantitative trading and investment decision making. Recent efforts have been dedicated to modeling various complex relationships among stocks in the stock market toward more reliable stock price forecasting.These methods depend heavily on strong static prior assumptions by modeling either temporal dependencies within individual stocks or spatial dependencies across different stocks based on predefined structures, while the complex market dynamics that drive stock price movements remain unexplored. To alleviate this issue, we propose a novel game-theoretic modeling method that captures heterogeneous investor interactions for stock price forecasting. The core idea is to embed game-theoretic mechanisms into the heterogeneous graph structure to finely model the dynamic strategic interactions among heterogeneous investors with respect to target stocks. Additionally, temporal positional encoding is adopted to reflect the differentiated influences of each game event at different time steps within the time window on future stock price movements. Leveraging heterogeneous graph networks, we proxy the intricate dynamics of the stock market through investor games and enable real-time information propagation and node updates among all nodes. Extensive experiments conducted on two real-world benchmark dataset demonstrate that our method effectively outperforms state-of-the-art stock price forecasting methods.
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