arXiv:2605.24037cs.CVcs.AI2026-05

将多模态轨迹预测统一为有序序列建模,解决模式重复与置信度不准问题

Mode-as-Sequence: Translating Multimodal Motion Prediction into Unified Sequential Mode Modeling

论文配图:Mode-as-Sequence: Translating Multimodal Motion Prediction into Unified Sequential Mode Modeling
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 把无序的多个未来轨迹转为有序序列,显式建模轨迹间的依赖关系
  • 在Waymo数据集上实现1st名,最佳轨迹准确率和置信度排序均显著提升
  • 支持高效大规模推理,适合需要高精度与快速响应的自动驾驶场景

多模态运动预测本质上监督不足:每个训练场景仅提供一个真实未来,但存在多个合理未来。这种稀疏监督常导致模式崩溃(重复假设、覆盖不足)和小样本轨迹预测时置信度排名不可靠。本文提出Mode-as-Sequence,一种统一解码框架,将无序的模式集合转化为有序模式序列,并显式建模模式间依赖。在此框架下,提出两种互补实现:ModeSeq采用递归模式解码,每一步生成均基于先前生成的模式,促进多样且非冗余的假设,实现校准的置信度排序;为消除逐模式自回归瓶颈,进一步提出Parallel ModeSeq,利用掩码模式自注意力保持相同因果依赖,在单次前向传播中并行解码所有模式,支持高效大K值推理和可扩展的联合场景预测。为在稀疏标签下学习代表性模式与校准置信度,引入Early-Match-Take-All(EMTA)及其联合场景扩展MA-EMTA,结合轻量级排序正则化器,减少置信度反转。大规模基准测试表明,该方法在不同数据集、预测时长和目标类型上均一致提升排名导向指标与最佳候选精度。在Waymo Open Dataset挑战赛中,ModeSeq获2024年无激光雷达运动预测赛道第一名,Parallel ModeSeq获2025年交互预测挑战赛第一名,验证了该框架在准确性与效率上的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multimodal motion forecasting is inherently under-supervised: each training scene provides only one realized future, yet multiple plausible futures exist. This sparse supervision often leads to mode collapse (redundant hypotheses and insufficient mode coverage) and unreliable confidence ranking when predicting a small set of trajectories. We propose Mode-as-Sequence, a unified decoding framework that translates an unordered mode set into an ordered mode sequence and explicitly models mode-to-mode dependency. Under this framework, we develop two complementary instantiations. ModeSeq performs recurrent mode decoding, where each mode is generated conditioned on the previously generated modes, encouraging diverse, non-redundant hypotheses with calibrated confidence ordering. To remove the mode-by-mode autoregressive bottleneck, we further propose Parallel ModeSeq, which preserves the same causal dependency using masked mode-to-mode self-attention while decoding all modes in a single forward pass, enabling efficient large-$K$ inference and scalable joint-scene prediction. To learn representative modes and calibrated confidence under sparse labels, we introduce Early-Match-Take-All (EMTA) and its joint-scene extension MA-EMTA, together with a lightweight ranking regularizer that reduces confidence inversions. Extensive experiments on large-scale benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements in both ranking-oriented metrics and best-of-K accuracy across datasets, horizons, and object types. In the Waymo Open Dataset challenges, ModeSeq achieves 1st place in the 2024 LiDAR-free motion prediction track, and Parallel ModeSeq achieves 1st place in the 2025 Interaction Prediction Challenge, validating the effectiveness of Mode-as-Sequence for both accuracy and efficiency.

轨迹预测多模态建模自动驾驶序列生成

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