arXiv:2605.24067physics.ao-phcs.LG2026-05

用气象先兆提升暴雨预测,提前感知风暴形成。

Seeing Inside the Storm: Improving Nowcasting by Integrating Meteorological Drivers

论文配图:Seeing Inside the Storm: Improving Nowcasting by Integrating Meteorological Drivers
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 融合热力、动力、微物理多源气象信号,建模对流全周期。
  • 在风暴生成阶段检测能力提升37.67%,高影响事件准确率+9.7%。
  • 适合气象预报与灾害预警领域,尤其关注早期预警场景。

现有短临预报系统多基于雷达回波,仅关注当前降水,忽视了低层辐合、湍流涡旋和潜热释放等大气前兆信号——这些信号提供了预见风暴生成的短暂窗口。本文提出MeteoLogist,一种受物理启发的雷达智能框架,用于建模对流从先兆到组织化风暴演化的全过程。然而,利用这些先兆极具挑战:它们源自热力、动力、微物理等多类气象驱动因子,其演化异步(C1)且空间碎片化(C2)。为此,MeteoLogist设计三个紧密集成组件:物理定制编码器根据回波的内在物理尺度与语义分出热力、动力、微物理三路信号,捕捉不同动力学状态;时相对齐器通过因果时间注意力捕捉各驱动因子的交互时机与方式,解决异步问题;跨场空间聚合器通过跨区域融合,对齐邻近单元中微弱分散的先兆信号,揭示上游触发机制并增强空间一致性。在2020–2022年美国全域3D-NEXRAD数据集上评估,MeteoLogist相较强基线将高影响事件检测准确率(CSI40)提升+9.7%,在风暴发展期更实现37.67%的显著增益,验证了真正意义上的“未见先知”能力。代码见补充材料。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Most nowcasting systems, built on radar reflectivity, focus on current precipitation, ignoring the atmospheric precursors -- such as low-level convergence, turbulent eddies, and latent heating -- that offer a fleeting window to foresee storm birth. We introduce MeteoLogist, a physics-inspired radar intelligence framework that models the full life cycle of convection -- from its precursors to organized storm evolution. However, exploiting these precursors is non-trivial: they originate from multiple meteorological drivers -- thermodynamic, kinematic, and microphysical -- that evolve asynchronously (C1) and remain spatially fragmented (C2). To this end, MeteoLogist designs three tightly integrated components. The Physics-Tailored Encoders process radar echoes according to their intrinsic physical scales and semantics, forming thermodynamic, kinematic, and microphysical streams that capture distinct dynamical regimes. The Temporal-Phase Aligner addresses C1 by leveraging causal temporal attention to capture when and how different drivers interact and activate. The Cross-Field Spatial Aggregator addresses C2 through cross-regional fusion, aligning weak and scattered precursors across neighboring cells to expose upstream triggers and enforce spatial coherence. Evaluated on 3D-NEXRAD (2020--2022, US-wide), MeteoLogist boosts high-impact detection (CSI40) by +9.7% over strong baselines, and achieves a remarkable 37.67% gain during the storm-developing stage -- demonstrating true foresight in sensing storms before they appear. The code can be found in the supplementary material.

短临预报气象建模雷达分析先兆检测

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