用户按贝叶斯理性决策:发现好结果就停止搜索。
Bayesian Rational Search Engine User
- 基于贝叶斯更新,用后验均值判断是否继续查看
- 最优策略是当最佳发现超过平均预期时停止,停止深度可精确计算
- 适用于研究用户行为建模与推荐系统评估
用户面对搜索系统返回的列表,该列表按有噪声的相关性代理排序。用户需决定是否支付固定成本查看下一个项目,或以当前最佳结果退出。用户在进入页面前并不知道内容质量,每次查看既产生候选项,也更新对页面整体质量的信念。我们证明最优策略为‘突出规则’:当最佳发现超过页面平均项的后验均值达到深度依赖阈值时停止。由此产生的动态可简化为一维马尔可夫链,通过闭式递推获得完整检查深度分布。模型揭示了信任、承诺与止损三种隐藏机制,带来丰富的可检验假设。此外,贝叶斯理性视角提出一种新的学习排序似然:观测到的检查深度将潜在相关性路径截断为生存不等式多面体,其高斯概率是任意特征相关性预测模型的可微函数。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
A user faces a list returned by a search system, ordered by a noisy proxy for relevance, and decides whether to pay a fixed cost to inspect another item or stop with the best she has uncovered. She does not enter the page knowing how good its items are, so each inspection both produces a candidate item and refines her belief about the page's underlying quality. We show the optimal policy is a standout rule: the user stops as soon as her best find exceeds her posterior mean of an average item on the page by a depth-dependent threshold. The induced dynamics collapse to a one-dimensional Markov chain, which yields the full distribution of inspection depth through a closed-form recursion. The model uncovers three hidden mechanisms (trust, commit, and cut-losses) on why users stop and yields a rich set of testable implications. Moreover, the Bayesian-rational view delivers a novel learning-to-rank likelihood: an observed depth censors the latent relevance path into a polyhedron of survival inequalities, whose Gaussian probability is a differentiable function of any feature-based relevance prediction model.
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