用动态模型联合优化治疗建议与患者依从性,提升慢性病数字疗法效果。
Optimizing Digital Therapeutic Interventions: Online Learning under Endogenous Adherence
- 构建基于线性动态系统的依从性模型,内生关联治疗建议与行为
- 提出UCB-BOLD算法,在合成数据上实现2-3倍更低的后悔值
- 适合需长期管理慢性病的临床决策者使用
慢性病管理面临资源与信息有限的挑战,数字疗法(DTs)通过每日干预实现规模化管理,但疗效高度依赖患者依从性。行为心理学表明,治疗建议与历史依从性共同影响未来依从性,而现有决策支持框架仅建模建议效应或将依从性视为外生变量。本文提出一个整合推荐与依从性效应的决策支持框架,采用线性动态系统(LDS)建模患者随时间变化的参与能力,通过logit链接将依从性内生化。建立了该模型的有限时间可识别性保证,并提出基于乐观主义的算法UCB-BOLD,证明其具有次线性后悔。在基于微随机试验数据生成的合成患者队列上进行消融实验,结果表明:相较于基准方法,UCB-BOLD实现2-3倍更低的条件风险价值(conditional value-at-risk)后悔值。该框架使决策者能高效利用数字疗法数据,通过有效资源配置改善患者健康。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
A critical challenge facing clinicians managing chronic disease interventions is sustaining long-run patient health given limited information and resources. Digital therapeutics (DTs) provide a cost-effective way to manage interventions at scale through repeated interactions (e.g. daily treatment recommendations), but patient success is highly dependent on their adherence. Behavioral psychology suggests that both treatment recommendations and past adherence affect future adherence, yet existing decision support frameworks for DTs model only recommendation effects or treat adherence as exogenous context, leaving a key gap in model and algorithm development. To address this gap, we present a DT decision support framework that captures both recommendation and adherence effects, allowing clinicians to better plan treatment recommendations. We model a patient's time-varying capacity for engagement with treatment using a linear dynamical system (LDS) that captures both recommendation and adherence effects, endogenously connected to adherence behavior with a logit link. We establish finite-time identification guarantees for this model, extending LDS results to our setting. Next, we propose an optimism-based algorithm, UCB-BOLD, for online treatment selection and prove that it achieves sublinear regret. We evaluate UCB-BOLD against benchmarks via ablation studies on a synthetic patient cohort generated using micro-randomized trial data. DT decision support tools can include dynamical models to enable decision makers to efficiently use the data in DT settings to improve patient health through effective resource allocation. While myopic or heuristic approaches suffice for some patient types, the benefits of explicitly planning around recommendation and adherence effects are significant for others; UCB-BOLD achieves 2-3x lower conditional value-at-risk regret than the next-best benchmark.
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