用随机占优理论改进股票聚类,更好匹配风险偏好不同的投资者
Clustering based on Stochastic Dominance with application for risk averters and risk seekers

- 基于一至三阶随机占优检验统计量构建占优系数矩阵
- 在美股和中国沪深100指数上验证方法有效且稳健
- 适合做个性化资产配置的学者与量化投资者
随机占优(SD)理论为不同风险偏好的投资者(如风险厌恶、风险追求者)提供了严谨的资产选择框架。然而,传统股票聚类方法多依赖欧氏距离等几何度量,难以捕捉资产间的内在风险占优关系。为此,本文提出一种基于SD检验统计量的创新聚类分析框架。方法上,深度融合SD理论与机器学习算法,突破传统几何距离局限,利用一、二、三阶随机占优检验统计量构建“随机占优系数矩阵”。在此基础上,改进经典K均值与层次聚类算法,衍生出12种针对不同阶次占优关系的变体。同时,构建SD-SC系数与SD-DBI指数作为专用聚类有效性评估指标。实证部分分析了美国纳斯达克指数(代表发达市场)与中国沪深100指数(代表新兴市场)成分股数据,结果验证了方法的有效性与鲁棒性。进一步将聚类结果应用于单指数模型修正与全球最小方差投资组合(GMVP)构建,表明该方法能有效支持个性化资产配置,具有重要理论价值与实践意义。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Stochastic Dominance (SD) theory provides a rigorous framework for selecting superior assets tailored to the asset allocation needs of investors with varying risk preferences (i.e., risk-averse, risk-seeking, and risk-neutral). However, traditional stock clustering methods typically rely on geometric metrics such as Euclidean distance, which often fail to effectively capture the intrinsic risk dominance relationships among assets. To address this limitation, this paper proposes an innovative clustering analysis framework based on SD test statistics. Methodologically, this study deeply integrates SD theory with machine learning algorithms. Transcending the limitations of traditional reliance on geometric distance, we innovatively utilize test statistics from first-, second-, and third-order SD to construct a "Stochastic Dominance Coefficient Matrix." Building upon this matrix, we modify the classic K-means and Hierarchical Clustering algorithms. Specifically, we derive 12 distinct algorithm variants tailored to different orders of SD relationships. Simultaneously, we construct the SD-SC coefficient and the SD-DBI index as specialized validity indices to evaluate the clustering performance. Empirically, we analyze constituent stock data from a representative developed market (the US NASDAQ Index) and an emerging market (China's CSI 100 Index). The results verify the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. Furthermore, we apply the clustering results to the modification of the Single Index Model and the construction of Global Minimum Variance Portfolios (GMVP). The findings demonstrate that the proposed method effectively facilitates customized asset allocation for investors, holding significant theoretical value and practical implications.
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