用统计方法找出影响城市热岛的关键因素。
Causal Evaluation of Contributing Factors to Urban Heat Island
- 基于霍特林T²检验，比较热岛上升与非上升区域的因子差异。
- 22个城区中，夜间地表温度普遍上升，但NDWI和NDBI无因果关联。
- 植被与气候因子变化是热岛加剧的主要原因，适合城市规划参考。
城市热岛（UHI）由多种因素复杂交互形成，其特征随时间和空间变化。理解热岛与其影响因素间的因果关系对减轻环境与健康危害至关重要。本文提出一种基于霍特林T²检验的统计方法，用于分析不同城区热岛趋势，并对比热岛上升与非上升区域的贡献因子差异。若差异显著，则可视为因果关联证据。研究以2003至2021年德黑兰22个行政区为对象，考察降水、NDSI、NDWI等气象指标，以及基于NDVI、EVI的植被覆盖和基于NDBI的城市密度作为潜在因素，以夜间地表温度（LST）衡量热岛强度。结果显示，所有城区的LST均呈稳定或上升趋势，表明普遍存在热岛效应；而时间变化中的NDWI与NDBI未发现与热岛存在因果关系；其余因素的变化则被识别为热岛加剧的重要驱动因素。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Urban heat islands (UHI) are formed due to complex interactions between various factors. UHI, its contributing factors, and their interaction vary over time and location. Accordingly, understanding the causal relation between UHI and its contributing factors is essential to minimizing its adverse effects on the environment and human health. Here, we proposed a statistical method based on Hotelling's T-square test to analyze this association. The proposed test estimates the UHI trends across different urban districts and compares the UHI contributing factors between the districts with increasing and non-increasing UHI trends. This comparison, if significantly different, can be interpreted as evidence of a causal association between the factor and UHI. This research used the proposed test to analyze the UHI and its contributing factors across 22 municipal districts of Tehran between 2003 and 2021. We examined the time series of weather conditions (measured by precipitation, NDSI, and NDWI), vegetation cover (measured by NDVI and EVI), and urban density (measured by NDBI) as factors contributing to the UHI, which was measured through nighttime LST. The results showed that all districts in Tehran exhibited stable or increasing trends in LST, leading to UHI effects. The proposed test indicated that the temporal changes in NDWI and NDBI did not have a causal relationship with UHIs. Meanwhile, variations in other factors were identified as contributing to the intensification of UHIs.
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