用神经网络建模有突发跳跃的时间序列,能同时捕捉隐藏状态和跳变特征。
Deep ZakaiJ: Structured Filtering for Jump-Diffusion Time Series Forecasting

- 将扎卡伊滤波方程嵌入编码器-解码器结构,分三步递归更新隐状态信念
- 在合成、金融和海洋数据上提升分布预测精度,且预测区间校准良好
- 适合需要理解突发跳变机制的金融、气候等复杂系统建模场景
由未观测隐状态驱动的时间序列常出现无法从历史观测中预知的突发跳跃。经典跳扩散模型虽具数学严谨性,但假设形式僵化;近期神经跳变模型则依赖全轨迹观测,无法推断驱动动态的隐状态。本文提出 Deep ZakaiJ,一种用于部分观测跳扩散系统的隐状态模型,将扎卡伊非线性滤波方程嵌入神经编码器-解码器架构。编码器通过斯特朗分裂将信念更新分为三个可解释子步骤:先验传播、扩散创新与跳变创新,实现对精确滤波演化的可微分、一阶准确近似。解码器为显式依赖滤波信念的结构化跳扩散模型,保持连续动态与离散冲击的分离。在合成、金融及海洋数据集上,Deep ZakaiJ 在保持点预测竞争力的同时,显著提升分布预测性能,实现校准的预测区间,并在合成与定性案例中恢复可解释的隐结构。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series driven by unobserved latent states frequently exhibit abrupt jump discontinuities whose timing and magnitude cannot be predicted from observed history alone. Classical jump-diffusion models offer a principled mathematical framework but assume rigid parametric forms, while recent neural jump models operate on fully observed trajectories without inferring the hidden states that govern the dynamics. We propose \textit{Deep ZakaiJ}, a latent-state model for partially observed jump-diffusion systems that embeds the Zakai nonlinear filtering equation into a neural encoder--decoder architecture. The encoder recursively updates a belief over the latent state via Strang splitting into three interpretable substeps: prior propagation, diffusion innovation, and jump innovation, yielding a differentiable, first-order-accurate approximation of the exact filtering evolution. The decoder is a structured jump-diffusion model explicitly conditioned on the filtered belief, preserving the separation between continuous dynamics and discontinuous shocks. On synthetic, financial, and oceanographic datasets, \textit{Deep ZakaiJ} improves distributional forecasts while remaining competitive in point accuracy, achieving calibrated predictive intervals and recovering interpretable latent structure in synthetic and qualitative case studies.
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