arXiv:2605.24868cs.LGnlin.CD2026-05

对比不同模型对混沌系统长期预测的稳定性,发现带积分器更新的模型更优。

A comparative study of accuracy and rollout stability of temporal surrogate models

论文配图:A comparative study of accuracy and rollout stability of temporal surrogate models
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 统一训练协议下比较常见神经网络架构在时间代理模型中的表现。
  • 具有积分器式更新的模型误差累积慢,长期滚动预测更稳定。
  • 适合研究混沌系统建模与长期动态预测的算法设计者参考。

时间代理模型在计算成本高昂的混沌动力系统预测中表现良好。本文采用统一训练协议,比较了几种常用深度神经网络架构在长时序预测中的性能。实验针对双摆、Kuramoto-Sivashinsky方程和Kolmogorov流动三个问题展开,保持模型容量一致。分析了步进误差注入、扰动放大等指标,如局部雅可比、相对一步偏差和有限时间李雅普诺夫增长。同时进行吸引子分析,评估模型对系统几何结构的复现能力。此外还对连续更新架构的各组件进行了消融研究。结果表明,具有积分器式更新的模型偏差和扰动放大更低,能实现更稳定的长期滚动预测和更高精度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Temporal surrogate models are effective for predicting chaotic dynamical systems where computational cost can be prohibitive. Several deep neural network architectures can be used for such purposes. In this work, a few commonly used architectures are compared using a common training protocol. The objective is to fairly assess the impact of model architectures for long-horizon prediction stability. Experiments are carried out for three problems, the double pendulum, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equations, and the Kolmogorov flow. The experiments are carried out with matching model capacity. Analysis is also carried out for a scenario where each model is individually optimized. It is observed that in both scenarios, the models exhibit categorical differences in long-horizon rollouts. For a concrete quantification, stepwise error injections and perturbation amplifications are analyzed using metrics such as local jacobian, relative one-step bias, and finite-time Lyapunov growth. Additionally, an attractor analysis is also conducted to assess how well the learned models replicate the underlying system geometry. An ablation study to isolate the impact of each component of a continuous-update architecture is also carried out. It is concluded that models that having integrator-like updates show lower bias and perturbation amplification yielding stable long-horizon rollout and more accurate predictions.

混沌系统长期预测神经网络稳定性

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