arXiv:2605.24872cs.LG2026-05

通过聚类嵌入优化分类置信区间,提升多类别预测的局部可靠性。

Cluster Frequency Conformal Prediction for Local Coverage

论文配图:Cluster Frequency Conformal Prediction for Local Coverage
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于学习表示空间的聚类,融合邻近簇频率信息生成概率向量。
  • 在16个对比实验中15次实现最优类别覆盖率,且预测集合更紧凑。
  • 适合高风险场景,如医疗诊断或金融决策中的精准置信评估。

置信预测提供无需分布假设的覆盖率保证,但在多类别分类中仍可能对特定类别或子群体覆盖不足,阻碍其在高风险应用中的安全部署。本文提出聚类频率置信预测(CFCP),一种可插拔框架,将置信预测适配到学习表示空间中的局部结构。CFCP对学习到的嵌入进行聚类,从校准数据估计簇级标签频率分布,并通过软混合邻近簇分布构建测试点特有的概率向量,同时使用全局先验与可靠性感知收缩进行正则化。该向量随后通过标准集合构造器进行置信化处理。在独立划分设定下,CFCP继承标准有限样本边际有效性;在额外假设下,进一步具备局部有效性解释。由于表示簇聚合了局部相似样本,其经验类别频率为局部标签不确定性提供了稳定估计。在图像与文本基准上,CFCP在16组数据集/评分组合中取得15次最佳类别覆盖率,且预测集合大小效率具有竞争力,部分设置显著更优。结果表明,聚类频率信息能有效提升多类别置信预测中的类别可靠性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in many-class classification it may still under-cover specific classes or subpopulations, preventing safe deployment in high-stakes applications. We propose Cluster Frequency Conformal Prediction (CFCP), a plug-in framework that adapts conformal prediction to local structure in a learned representation space. CFCP clusters learned embeddings, estimates cluster-level label-frequency distributions from calibration data, and for each test point constructs a sample-specific probability vector by softly mixing nearby cluster distributions regularized with global-prior and reliability-aware shrinkage. This vector is then conformalized using standard set constructors. In the disjoint-split regime, CFCP inherits standard finite-sample marginal validity. Under additional assumptions, CFCP further admits a local-validity interpretation. Since representation clusters aggregate locally similar samples, their empirical class frequencies provide a stable estimate of local label ambiguity. Across image and text benchmarks, CFCP achieves the best class coverage in 15/16 dataset/score-family comparisons and a competitive prediction set size efficiency, with several settings substantially more efficient. Overall, our results show that cluster-frequency information provides an effective localized signal for improving classwise reliability in many-class conformal prediction.

置信预测聚类多类别可靠性

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