arXiv:2605.24983cs.LG2026-05

对比多种非符合度评分函数,找出更优的置信预测方法。

Benchmarking non-conformity score functions in conformal prediction

论文配图:Benchmarking non-conformity score functions in conformal prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 设计新评估方法,量化不同评分函数生成的预测集大小
  • 在类别不平衡场景下,验证部分评分函数表现更优
  • 为实际应用提供可选的非符合度评分函数参考

置信预测是机器学习分类中模型校准的有力替代方案。它用预测集合取代单类预测,保证预测集合包含真实类别的先验概率不低于预设阈值。预测集合的大小与实用性高度依赖于非符合度评分函数的选择。尽管文献中已有众多非符合度评分函数,但对其性质和效果的系统研究仍不足。本文综述了非符合度评分函数的特性,列举现有文献中的实例并提出原创改进。引入一种评估预测集大小的新方法,对不同评分函数进行比较,并在类别不平衡场景下检验各类评分函数在条件置信预测中的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal prediction is a useful and versatile alternative to model calibration in machine learning classification. It replaces single-class prediction with prediction sets, guaranteeing that the \textit{a priori} probability of the prediction sets containing the true class is larger than or equal to a pre-specified rate. The size and usefulness of the prediction sets relies heavily on the choice of the non-conformity score function. The scientific literature contains many examples of non-conformity score functions but there is an absence of studies examining their properties and effectiveness. In this paper, we give an overview of properties of non-conformity score functions. We give examples of non-conformity score functions in the existing literature and introduce original modifications. We introduce an original method of evaluating the prediction set sizes of conformal predictors and use it to provide a comparison between non-conformity score functions. We also examine efficacy of different non-conformity score functions for class-conditional conformal prediction in a setting with imbalanced classes.

置信预测非符合度评分分类校准

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