arXiv:2605.24989cs.LGcs.AI2026-05

根据预测不确定性动态调整计算量,提升点击率预测精度。

Selective Test-Time Compute Scaling for Click-Through Rate Prediction via Uncertainty-Triggered Feature Path Exploration

论文配图:Selective Test-Time Compute Scaling for Click-Through Rate Prediction via Uncertainty-Triggered Feature Path Exploration
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 按实例不确定性动态选择计算深度,不依赖训练阶段调参。
  • 在线实验显示点击率提升5.3%(p<0.01),平均开销仅2.8倍基础模型。
  • 适合工业级推荐系统,尤其对稀疏特征场景有效。

测试时计算扩展在语言模型中已被证明高效,但在工业点击率(CTR)预测中仍鲜有探索。CTR模型存在根本性不对称:训练中常见特征组合产生可靠预测,而稀疏特征则输出不可靠。现有训练阶段方案如自适应门控学习固定选择函数,受制于相同稀疏性,无法在部署时提供实例级应对。本文提出无需训练的模型无关框架UTTSI(不确定性触发的测试时选择性推理),根据每实例不确定性按比例扩展推理深度。通过结合模型对数置信度与数据层面频率先验的双信号估计器,区分认知不确定性与随机模糊性。每个实例进行自适应特征过滤以剔除不可靠嵌入;不确定实例额外执行随机特征路径探索,并通过一致性加权集成聚合预测结果。高置信实例直接跳过探索,使平均开销约为基础模型的2.8倍,最坏情况延迟不变。在四个数据集上使用三种骨干架构的实验表明,相比所有训练阶段基线,性能持续显著提升。七天在线A/B测试进一步验证了5.3%的相对点击率增益(p < 0.01),确立选择性测试时计算分配作为训练阶段进展的实用补充。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Scaling test-time compute has proven highly effective for language models, yet this opportunity remains largely unexplored for industrial Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. CTR models suffer from a fundamental asymmetry: feature combinations well-represented in training yield confident predictions, while sparsely observed ones produce unreliable outputs. Existing training-phase solutions such as adaptive gating learn a fixed selection function subject to the same sparsity, offering no per-instance recourse at deployment.We propose UTTSI (Uncertainty-Triggered Test-Time Selective Inference), a training-free model-agnostic framework that scales inference depth proportionally to per-instance uncertainty. A dual-signal estimator combining model logit confidence with a data-level frequency prior distinguishes epistemic uncertainty from aleatoric ambiguity. Every instance undergoes adaptive feature filtering to remove unreliable embeddings; uncertain instances additionally receive stochastic feature-path explorations whose predictions are aggregated via consistency-weighted ensembling. Confident instances bypass exploration entirely, keeping average overhead at approximately $2.8\times$ base model cost with worst-case latency unchanged.Experiments on four datasets with three backbone architectures demonstrate consistent, statistically significant gains over all training-phase baselines. A seven-day online A/B test further confirms a 5.3% relative CTR gain ($p < 0.01$), establishing selective test-time compute allocation as a practical complement to training-phase advances for CTR prediction.

点击率预测测试时计算不确定性建模推荐系统

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