arXiv:2605.25169cs.LGstat.ME2026-05

在优先队列中随机分配资源,既能优先救助高需求者,又能准确评估政策效果。

Learning Treatment Effects during Resource Allocation via Priority-Queue Randomization

论文配图:Learning Treatment Effects during Resource Allocation via Priority-Queue Randomization
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 根据风险评分将申请人随机分配到不同优先级队列,按优先级和先后顺序发放资源。
  • 当申请人为外生时可识别标准因果效应;内生时则通过队列随机化获得局部处理效应。
  • 设计兼顾统计效率与优先救助高需求者,适用于公共资源配置评估场景。

公共服务项目常因对效益的不确定性而面临资源有限的问题,需通过随机化进行可信评估。然而现实中申请人通常进入按需求分级的等待队列,直接随机化难以实施。为此,我们提出一种实验设计框架:基于风险评分将新申请人随机分配至优先队列,资源按队列优先级及队列内先到先得原则发放。我们的贡献有二:其一,厘清了该分配机制下可识别的因果效应——当申请为外生时,治疗条件随机化,标准估计量可识别;当申请为内生时,队列随机化充当工具变量,识别由排队过程引发的局部处理效应。其二,提出优化队列分配设计,在统计效率与优先照顾高需求者之间权衡。研究显示,尽管设计导致治疗分配存在依赖性,传统的独立同分布效率界仍具合理性。我们使用美国某大型县住房分配数据验证了该方法的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Public service programs often allocate limited resources under uncertainty about their benefits, creating a need for randomization to support credible evaluation. In practice, however, applicants commonly enter waitlists where resources are prioritized toward individuals judged to have higher need through tiered priority queues, making direct randomization difficult. Motivated by this, we develop an experimental design framework for learning treatment effects while treating those most in need where incoming applicants are randomized into priority queues based on their assessed risk scores. Treatments are then provided across queues in priority order and first-in-first-out within queue as budget becomes available. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we characterize what causal effects are identified under this priority-queue allocation. When arrivals are exogenous, treatments are conditionally randomized, and hence standard estimands are identified; when arrivals are endogenous, queue randomization instead provides an instrument for treatment, identifying local treatment effects induced by the queuing process. Second, we develop optimized queue-assignment designs that trade off statistical efficiency against prioritizing higher-need applicants. We show in the process that, despite dependence in treatment assignments induced by the design, usual iid efficiency bounds remain well-justified design objectives. We illustrate the proposed designs using data from a housing allocation program in a large U.S. county.

因果推断资源分配队列随机化

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