九国调查显示公众对军事AI态度有条件支持,非全面反对。
Beyond Killer Robots: General AI Attitudes and Public Support for Military AI in Nine Countries
- 基于9000人跨国调查,分析公众对军事AI的支持动因。
- 认可AI整体价值者更支持军事应用,尤其在非致命场景。
- 对全自动杀伤力的担忧集中,但风险感知反而与支持正相关。
AI赋能的军事系统已是现代冲突的常态,涵盖自主侦察攻击无人机及AI辅助目标选择。政府与科技公司围绕前沿AI的军事使用条件展开争议。尽管军事应用及政策推动发生在公众意见背景下,但公众对军事AI的看法仍不清晰。本研究基于九国(含中国、德国、美国)9000名受访者预注册调查,考察公众支持军事AI是否由对AI的一般态度、对致命自主性的原则性反对,或外交与地缘政治立场决定。在六种不同致命性与人类控制程度的军事场景中,认为AI有益者显著更支持军事应用;好战型受访者亦更支持。而对致命自主性的原则性反对仅与完全自主杀伤力的应用相关,未广泛影响整体态度。出乎意料的是,对AI风险的感知反而与支持呈正相关。国别差异中等,总体符合地缘政治背景。总体而言,公众对军事AI持条件性宽容态度,非全盘反对,担忧主要集中于完全自主的致命武力使用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
AI-enabled military systems are a fixture of modern military conflict. Applications vary from autonomous drones for surveillance and attack to AI-supported target selection. The importance of AI for modern conflict shows also in public disputes between governments and technology companies over the conditions for military access to frontier AI. Both military uses and government attempts at enabling and steering them happen before a backdrop of public opinion, yet we still know little about how people think about military AI. Drawing on a preregistered survey of 9,000 respondents in nine countries, including China, Germany, and the United States, we examine whether support for military AI is shaped primarily by general attitudes toward AI, principled opposition to lethal autonomy, or foreign-policy and geopolitical orientations. Across six military AI scenarios that vary in lethality and human control, respondents who view AI as beneficial are substantially more supportive of military AI. Hawkish respondents are also more supportive. By contrast, principled opposition to lethal autonomy is not broadly associated with the full index but is related to the application of fully autonomous lethal force. Contrary to our expectation, perceived AI risks are positively associated with support. Cross-national differences are moderate and broadly consistent with geopolitical context. Overall, public opinion toward military AI appears conditionally permissive. Publics are not categorically opposed to various military uses of AI. Instead, unease is concentrated around fully autonomous lethal force.
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