arXiv:2605.25244cs.CL2026-05被引 1

通过分析推理过程中的置信度变化,提升大模型答题准确率。

Inference Time Optimization with Confidence Dynamics

  • 根据推理路径中置信度动态变化规律设计投票机制
  • 在多个基准测试上显著优于基线方法
  • 适合关注大模型推理优化的研究者与开发者

推理时优化技术(如重复采样)已显著提升大语言模型的推理能力,但模型不确定性在这些策略中的作用仍被忽视。本文首次揭示:正确推理路径的置信度随时间上升(正向信心增长),而错误路径则呈现信心衰减或下降。基于此,提出置信度动态增益(CDG)投票方法,利用响应轨迹中置信度演变特征进行答案选择。在DeepSeek-R1、gpt-oss、Gemma-3、Qwen-QwQ四种开源模型上,针对AIME24/25、HMMT25、BRUMO25三个基准测试的实验表明,CDG相比基线有显著性能提升。结果证明该方法可提供稳健的判别信号以增强大模型推理中的答案选择。同时给出该现象的理论解释。代码将发布于https://github.com/Accenture/CDG.git。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Inference time optimization techniques, such as repeated sampling, have significantly advanced the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the critical role of model uncertainty remains largely underexplored in these optimization strategies. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of confidence along reasoning trajectories and for first time reveal a surprising and unique pattern: correct answer traces tend to exhibit confidence improvement over time (positive confidence gain), while incorrect traces show attenuated or declining confidence as reasoning proceeds. Based on this observation, we propose Confidence Dynamic Gain (CDG) based voting, which incorporates how the confidence trajectory of the response evolves along the reasoning chain. Experiments across four open-source architectures (DeepSeek-R1, gpt-oss, Gemma-3, Qwen-QwQ) on the AIME24/25, HMMT25, and BRUMO25 benchmarks demonstrate that CDG yields a significant performance boost over baselines. These results demonstrate that our method provides a robust discriminative signal for improving answer selection in LLM reasoning. We also provide theoretical insights for this phenomenon. Code will be released at https://github.com/Accenture/CDG.git.

大模型推理置信度分析优化算法

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