arXiv:2605.25399cs.AI2026-05

用对比学习让大模型直接处理带删失的生存分析,效果优于传统方法。

Towards end-to-end LLM-based censoring-aware survival analysis

论文配图:Towards end-to-end LLM-based censoring-aware survival analysis
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将生存预测转为患者间成对排序,避开删失干扰
  • 在两个临床数据集上比Cox模型提升3.1%和0.5%
  • 可本地部署,适合医疗场景快速落地

生存分析在医疗预测中至关重要,但大语言模型(LLMs)因删失问题难以直接用于端到端建模。本文提出LLMSurvival框架,使未经修改的LLM能直接处理表格化临床数据,并通过成对比较实现删失感知的生存分析。该方法在两个临床任务中表现优异:在MIMIC-IV ICU死亡率预测中,较Cox比例风险模型提升3.1%;在纽约-长老会/威尔康奈尔医学院的脆性骨折预测中,提升0.5%。平均而言,在三个主流深度学习生存模型基础上分别提升2.1%(重症)和2.8%(骨折)。结果表明,基于对比的重构可使大模型兼容删失建模,且性能超越专家设计评分系统(如SAPS-II、FRAX)。框架支持本地部署,小型公开基底模型即可达到良好表现。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Objective: Survival analysis is central to medical prediction, yet large language models (LLMs) are rarely used as end-to-end survival models because censoring prevents straightforward supervised fine-tuning. Here we present LLMSurvival, a framework that enables censoring-aware survival analysis with unmodified LLMs operating directly on tabular clinical data. Materials and Methods: LLMSurvival reformulates time-to-event prediction as pairwise ranking among comparable subjects, and derives test-time risk by aggregating comparisons against anchor individuals from the training cohort. Results: Across two clinical tasks (ICU mortality prediction in MIMIC-IV and fragility fracture prediction in a NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medicine cohort), LLMSurvival improves overall concordance over Cox proportional hazards modeling by 3.1% for ICU mortality and 0.5% for fracture risk, 2.1% on average for ICU mortality and 2.8% for fracture risk over three established deep learning survival models. Discussion: The results show that survival modeling with censoring can be made compatible with LLM fine-tuning through comparison-based reformulation. The framework demonstrates high portability and superior performance over expert curated scores like SAPS-II and FRAX scores across diverse clinical context. Furthermore, the framework supports local deployment, as compact, publicly available base models provide sufficient performance. Conclusion: The LLMSurvival framework serves as a proof of concept for an integrated, censoring-conscious approach to survival analysis via LLMs.

生存分析大模型医疗预测删失处理

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