arXiv:2605.25616cs.LGstat.ML2026-05

用法庭辩论比喻分类不确定性,让模型输出更可解释的置信度。

Courtroom Analogy: New Perspective on Uncertainty-Aware Classification

论文配图:Courtroom Analogy: New Perspective on Uncertainty-Aware Classification
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将每个类别视为一名辩护人,通过加权投票形成最终判决。
  • 使用狄利克雷混合模型,参数可解释且表现优于现有方法。
  • 适合需要理解模型置信度来源的研究者与应用开发者。

分类任务中的单次不确定性量化方法通常通过预测类别概率向量的可处理分布来表示不确定性。尽管现有方法多致力于提升该分布的表达能力,却往往难以揭示预测不确定性的结构与聚合方式,导致解释性较弱。本文提出法庭类比框架,将不确定性感知分类建模为类别专属辩护人之间的结构化辩论。每位辩护人形成概率意见,最终判决通过输入相关的可信度权重聚合这些意见得出。每个辩护人的意见被建模为狄利克雷分布,其集中参数分解为共享证据与类别特异性辩护成分。这生成了一个具有语义可解释参数的结构化狄利克雷混合模型。为实现此框架,我们提出混合狄利克雷专家(MoDEX),一种单次前馈神经架构,可预测法庭参数,实现高效且表达能力强的不确定性量化,同时明确建模不确定性聚合过程。实验表明,MoDEX具备优良理论性质,在多个基准测试中达到领先性能,提供具有语义意义的可解释不确定性估计。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Single-pass uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for classification represent uncertainty by predicting a tractable distribution over the class probability vector. While existing approaches primarily focus on enhancing the expressiveness of this distribution, they often provide limited insight into how predictive uncertainty is structured and aggregated, resulting in weak interpretability. We introduce the courtroom analogy, which conceptualizes uncertainty-aware classification as a structured debate among class-specific advocates. Each advocate forms a probabilistic opinion, and a final verdict is reached by aggregating these opinions using input-dependent plausibility weights. In this framework, each advocate's opinion is modeled as a Dirichlet distribution whose concentration parameter is decomposed into shared evidence and class-specific advocacy. This yields a structured mixture of Dirichlet distributions with semantically interpretable parameters. To instantiate this formulation, we propose Mixture of Dirichlet EXperts (MoDEX), a single-pass neural architecture that predicts the courtroom parameters, enabling efficient and expressive UQ while explicitly modeling uncertainty aggregation. We demonstrate that MoDEX enjoys strong theoretical properties and achieves state-of-the-art UQ performance across diverse benchmarks, yielding interpretable uncertainty estimates with meaningful semantics.

不确定性量化可解释性狄利克雷分布深度学习

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