arXiv:2605.26130cs.LGphysics.ao-ph2026-05

用AI把天气预报分辨率提升到1公里,还能跨区域直接用。

AirCast-SR: A Foundation Model for Kilometer-Scale Atmospheric Super-Resolution via Latent Consistency Diffusion

论文配图:AirCast-SR: A Foundation Model for Kilometer-Scale Atmospheric Super-Resolution via Latent Consistency Diffusion
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于扩散模型的3D U-Net,从28公里预报图生成1公里级精细天气图
  • 67小时预测8个变量,误差接近零,小尺度气象结构保留完好
  • 无需调参即可在印度德国等地区直接使用,适合气候服务与灾害预警

千米级天气预报对传统数值天气预报(NWP)模型而言仍计算成本过高,限制了能源、农业和灾害管理等领域对高时空精度预报的需求。本文提出AirCast-SR,一种用于大气超分辨率的奠基模型,可将全球AI天气预报从0.25度(约28公里)水平分辨率下采样至1公里,以小时为单位生成8个耦合地表变量的67小时预报。模型采用三维U-Net,在潜空间一致性扩散(LCM)框架中进行条件生成,训练数据覆盖美国本土(CONUS),输入为GraphCast预报结果,目标为NOAA的分析记录(AORC)。模型在所有变量和预报时长上均实现近零偏差,径向功率谱密度分析表明,其在10至100公里波长范围内的细尺度大气结构得以有效保留,而粗分辨率模型在此处已丢失谱能。我们在美国本土三个涵盖冬、夏、春三季的案例中验证了模型性能,并展示其在印度和德国的零样本跨区域迁移能力,仅依赖独立地面站点观测数据,无需任何微调或重训练。作为开放权重的奠基模型,AirCast-SR确立了千米级AI天气预报新范式,为区域微调、模型压缩及气候服务与灾害预警等下游应用提供平台。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Operational weather prediction at kilometer scales remains computationally prohibitive for traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, limiting forecast access for applications in energy, agriculture, and disaster management that require fine-grained spatiotemporal detail. Here we introduce AirCast-SR, a foundation model for atmospheric super-resolution that downscales global AI weather forecasts from 0.25 degree (~28 km) to 1 km horizontal resolution at hourly temporal resolution, producing 67-hour forecasts of eight coupled surface variables simultaneously. EarthMind-SR employs a three-dimensional U-Net conditioned within a Latent Consistency Model (LCM) diffusion framework, trained on patch-based samples over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using GraphCast forecasts as input and NOAA's Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) as the target. The model achieves near-zero bias across all variables and lead times, and its radial power spectral density analysis demonstrates preservation of fine-scale atmospheric structure at wavelengths of 10 km to 100 km where coarser models lose spectral power. We validate EarthMind-SR across three CONUS case studies spanning winter, summer, and spring seasons, and demonstrate zero-shot global transferability over India and Germany using independent surface station observations without any retraining or fine-tuning. As an open-weights foundation model, EarthMind-SR establishes a new paradigm for kilometer-scale AI weather prediction and provides a platform for regional fine-tuning, distillation, and downstream applications in climate services and hazard forecasting.

天气预报超分辨率扩散模型跨区域迁移

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。