arXiv:2605.26562cs.LG2026-05KDD

首个细粒度时间序列预测组件基准,揭示模型各部分真实效果

Beyond Holistic Models: Systematic Component-level Benchmarking of Deep Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting

论文配图:Beyond Holistic Models: Systematic Component-level Benchmarking of Deep Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将复杂模型拆解为预处理、编码、架构等细粒度组件进行系统评测
  • 完成超2万次模型-数据组合评估,发现组件间交互影响显著
  • 基于数据驱动的组件自动选择,零样本建模表现优于顶尖模型

现有多变量时间序列预测研究集中于构建复杂整体模型,本文主张转向对模型各组成部分的细粒度理解。提出TSCOMP,首个大规模基准,系统性地将深度预测方法分解为核心细粒度组件——涵盖序列预处理、编码策略、网络架构(含特定与大型时序模型)及优化方法。通过受控正交实验设计与广泛评估,开展多视角分析,揭示组件在不同主干模型、数据特征及其交互下的有效性。该基准不仅提供洞见,更建立了一个包含超过20,000次模型-数据评估的细粒度性能库,支持自动化组件选择,实现新数据集上的零样本模型构建。实验表明,尽管该方法结构简单,但持续优于当前最先进方法,验证了评估设计的合理性,并证实系统性组件选择优于人工设计的复杂架构。所有代码与性能库已公开于https://github.com/SUFE-AILAB/TSCOMP。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

While previous research in multivariate time series forecasting has focused on developing complex holistic models, this work advocates for a shift toward a granular, component-level understanding of their impacts. We propose TSCOMP, the first large-scale benchmark that systematically deconstructs deep forecasting methods into their core, fine-grained components--spanning series preprocessing, encoding strategies, network architectures including specific and large time-series models, and optimization methods. Using constrained orthogonal experimental design and extensive evaluations, we conduct multi-view analyses that reveal component effectiveness across different backbones, data characteristics, and their interactions. Beyond providing insights, this benchmark establishes a fine-grained performance corpus comprising over 20,000 model-dataset evaluations, which supports the learning of automated component selection, enabling zero-shot model construction on new datasets. Our experiments demonstrate that the corpus-driven approach, despite its simplicity, consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, validating the soundness of our evaluation design and confirming that systematic component selection surpasses manually designed complex architectures. All code and the performance corpus are publicly available at https://github.com/SUFE-AILAB/TSCOMP.

时间序列组件评测模型拆解自动化建模

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