用AI发现更优的卡尔曼滤波结构,提升雷达与激光雷达追踪精度
The Kalman Evolve: Closing the Gap in Kalman Filtering via Interpretable Algorithm Discovery

- 通过大模型生成可解释的非线性更新结构,改进传统卡尔曼滤波
- 在真实追踪任务中实现最高12%的均方根误差降低
- 适合需要高可靠性的自动驾驶与传感器融合场景
状态估计是控制与信号处理中的基础问题,卡尔曼滤波在满足线性动态、高斯噪声及已知噪声协方差的前提下提供最优解。但在多普勒雷达、激光雷达等实际传感场景中,这些假设常不成立,导致最优估计器本质上是非线性的,引发系统性性能下降。仅调整噪声协方差参数无法消除此性能差距。为此,我们提出Kalman Evolve框架,通过联合优化噪声参数与更新结构来发现更优的滤波算法。该方法利用大语言模型(LLMs)作为程序空间的结构先验,生成保持递归形式的可解释非仿射更新。我们提供了分析结果,证明在常见非线性传感模型下仿射估计器存在固有次优性,从而支持结构感知更新的必要性。在包括多普勒雷达、基于激光雷达的定位和行人追踪在内的多种合成与真实世界追踪基准上,所发现算法持续优于强基线如优化卡尔曼滤波,最高实现12%的均方根误差(RMSE)降低。结果表明,优化滤波器结构而非仅参数,是一种实用且可解释的状态估计提升方式。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
State estimation is a fundamental problem in control and signal processing, for which the Kalman Filter provides an optimal solution under linear dynamics, Gaussian noise, and known noise covariances. However, these assumptions often fail in realistic sensing settings such as Doppler radar and LiDAR. In these cases, the optimal estimator is inherently nonlinear, which leads to systematic performance degradation. This creates a performance gap that cannot be eliminated by tuning the noise covariance parameters (i.e., the process and measurement noise in the Kalman Filter) alone. To address this limitation, we propose Kalman Evolve, a framework for discovering improved filtering algorithms by jointly optimizing both noise parameters and the update structure. Our approach leverages large language models (LLMs) as a structured prior over program space, enabling the generation of interpretable, non-affine modifications to the classical Kalman filter while preserving its recursive form. We provide analytical results establishing the suboptimality of affine estimators under common nonlinear sensing models, motivating the need for structure-aware updates. Across a range of synthetic and real-world tracking benchmarks, including Doppler radar, LiDAR-based localization, and pedestrian tracking, the discovered algorithms consistently improve over strong baselines such as the Optimized Kalman Filter, achieving up to 12\% reduction in RMSE. These results suggest that optimizing the structure of the Kalman filter, rather than only its parameters, provides a practical and interpretable way to improve state estimation.
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