用GAN与扩散模型结合生成更真实的股票时序数据,精准刻画资产间相关性。
High-Quality Synthetic Financial Time-Series using a GAN-Diffusion Framework

- 融合GAN与扩散模型,利用GAN判别器指导扩散过程
- 生成数据更好还原股价与成交量的统计特性,相关性结构更准确
- 适合金融仿真、风险评估等需要高真实感数据的场景
近年来,金融机构越来越多地采用合成数据应对数据稀缺问题,并生成反事实市场情景。然而,现有通用架构在复现金融时间序列的典型统计特征(即所谓‘风格化事实’)方面仍面临挑战。本文提出一种质量感知的生成框架,整合两类生成方法,有效克服原有局限并提升合成数据的真实性。具体而言,我们首先引入CoMeTS-GAN(相关多变量时间序列生成对抗网络),一种条件生成对抗网络(C-GAN),用于联合生成相关股票的中价与成交量时间序列。随后,我们展示如何将该GAN架构融入当前最先进的扩散模型,以增强生成相关结构的质量。具体地,利用GAN的判别器作为质量评估模块,引导扩散过程,强化学习到的相关性结构。本框架提供了一种轻量且响应迅速的股票市场模拟方案,显式建模资产间相关性。实验验证表明,相比主流生成架构,该框架更有效地捕捉股票市场的风格化事实并准确建模资产间相关性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In recent years, financial institutions and firms have increasingly adopted synthetic data to address data scarcity and to generate counterfactual market scenarios. However, reproducing all the statistical properties of financial time series, commonly known as stylized facts, remains an open challenge for many existing general-purpose architectures. In this paper, we present a quality-aware generative framework that combines two classes of generative methods, demonstrating how their integration addresses existing limitations while enhancing the realism of synthetic data. Specifically, we first introduce CoMeTS-GAN (Correlated Multivariate Time Series GAN), a Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (C-GAN) designed to jointly generate mid-price and volume time-series for correlated stocks. We then show how our GAN architecture can be incorporated into state-of-the-art diffusion models to enhance the quality of generated correlation structures. Specifically, the GAN's Critic serves as a quality evaluation module that guides the diffusion process, enforcing learned correlation structures in the generated time-series. Our framework offers a lightweight and responsive solution for realistic stock market simulation, explicitly modeling inter-asset correlation structures. We experimentally validate our framework against leading generative architectures, showing that it more effectively captures the stylized facts of stock markets and models inter-asset correlations.
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