arXiv:2605.27391cs.CYcs.AI2026-05

疫情后学生数字技能不足,影响其进入AI时代的职业准备。

Learning after COVID-19 and the ICT career aspirations: Are students entering the AI era with weaker skills?

  • 用多方法整合分析学习环境与职业志向变化
  • 数字技能是预测ICT职业意愿最强因素
  • 适合关注教育政策与AI人才培育的研究者

本文考察学生是否具备足够教育基础进入生成式AI时代,聚焦学习环境与各国信息技术类职业志向变化的关系。基于PISA 2018与2022的国家层面数据,结合学生自主性、数字技能与教师支持指标,采用描述统计、回归分析、聚类、变分自编码器(VAE)隐表示学习、判别分析与概率建模等混合方法,捕捉教育准备度的可观测与潜在维度。与以往将学习损失、数字技能与职业期望分开研究不同,本研究在纵向比较框架中整合三者,从短期疫情效应转向教育系统应对数字化与人工智能驱动劳动力市场的结构性能力。结果显示,全球范围内信息技术职业志向普遍但不均衡上升;数字技能是最强且最一致的预测因子,教师支持起互补作用,而自主性影响较弱且依赖情境。教育准备度具有多维性,信息技术职业志向相对独立于其他职业领域。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper examines whether students are entering the generative AI era with sufficiently strong educational foundations, focusing on the relationship between learning environments and changes in ICT related career aspirations across countries. The analysis uses country-level data from PISA 2018 and 2022, combining indicators of student autonomy, digital skills and teacher support. A mixed-method approach is applied, including descriptive statistics, regression analysis, clustering, latent representation learning (using Variational Autoencoder-VAE), discriminant analysis and probabilistic modeling to capture both observable and latent dimensions of educational readiness. Unlike prior research that treats learning loss, digital skills and career expectations separately, our analysis integrates them within a comparative longitudinal framework. It shifts the focus from short-term post-pandemic effects to the structural capacity of education systems to prepare students for digital and AI-driven labor markets. Results show a global but uneven increase in ICT career aspirations. Digital skills emerge as the strongest and most consistent predictor, while teacher support plays a complementary role. Autonomy shows weaker, context-dependent effects. Educational readiness is multidimensional, and ICT aspirations evolve relatively independently from other career domains.

AI教育数字技能职业规划

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