arXiv:2605.27401cs.CYcs.AI2026-05综述

用大模型生成问卷数据,辅助人口合成,效果有好有坏。

Using Zero-Shot LLM-Generated Survey Data for Geographically Explicit Population Synthesis

论文配图:Using Zero-Shot LLM-Generated Survey Data for Geographically Explicit Population Synthesis
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用GPT-4.1和Gemini-2.5-Pro零样本生成科罗拉多与密西西比州健康调查数据
  • 生成数据能反映州级差异,但部分变量误差被人口合成放大
  • 适合用于补充真实调查数据,尚不能替代

随着合成人口在各类应用中日益重要,人工智能的快速发展也带来新可能。本文评估了零样本大语言模型(LLM)生成的健康调查数据能否作为传统迭代比例调整(IPF)流程的输入,实现地理精细的人口合成。基于2023年行为风险因素监测系统(BRFSS),我们使用GPT-4.1和Gemini-2.5-Pro为科罗拉多州与密西西比州生成合成调查记录,并将其输入IPF合成流程,再以外部基准检验生成的普查区层级合成人口。结果显示,两种模型均能捕捉主要州级差异,表明零样本生成具备地理差异化能力;但性能受变量影响显著,下游人口合成中,IPF有时会放大或削弱生成数据中的误差。空间验证表明,基于LLM的数据所生成的人口在普查区层面合理再现了真实模式,尤其对与真实数据更一致的变量表现良好。总体而言,该方法具有潜力作为补充输入,但尚不足以取代真实调查数据。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

There is a growing interest in utilizing synthetic populations for a diverse range of applications. At the same time, we are witnessing a tremendous growth in artificial intelligence in all walks of life. This paper evaluates whether zero-shot large language model (LLM)-generated health survey data can serve as inputs to a conventional iterative proportional fitting (IPF) workflow for geographically explicit population synthesis. Using the 2023 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), we generate synthetic survey records for the U.S. states of Colorado and Mississippi with GPT-4.1 and Gemini-2.5-Pro. We use the generated data in an IPF-based synthesis pipeline and evaluate the resulting census tract-level synthetic populations against external benchmarks. Results show both LLMs capture several major state-level contrasts, indicating zero-shot generation produces geographically differentiated survey data. However, performance is strongly variable-dependent. Downstream effects in population synthesis are mixed, as IPF sometimes amplifies or reduces errors in the generated data. Spatial validation shows that LLM-based populations reproduce census tract-level patterns reasonably well, especially for variables that were more aligned with the ground truth data. Overall, the LLM-generated survey data shows promise as supplementary input, but not yet as a replacement for real survey data.

人口合成大模型生成数据零样本

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