用分段冻结的三角参考模型生成时间序列,提升波动率和相关性模拟能力。
Triangular-Reference Schrödinger Bridges for Time Series Generation

- 以分段冻结的三角参考过程替代布朗运动,引入隐式协方差描述符。
- 在每个区间上最优漂移为对数梯度形式,可捕捉退化协方差方向。
- 适用于需要精确建模随机波动率或弱相关噪声的金融与信号生成场景。
Schrödinger 桥用于时间序列(SBTS)通过相对熵投影将布朗参考路径映射到匹配数据联合分布的路径律。然而,布朗参考固定了路径的二次变差,限制了对随机波动率、相关噪声或秩亏协方差结构的建模能力。本文提出「三角参考 Schrödinger 桥」(TR-SBTS),保留 SBTS 的熵投影核心,但将布朗参考替换为基于状态扩展中隐含协方差描述符的分段冻结三角参考。该构造仍为单一熵投影:最小化器是参考的 $h$-变换,在每个冻结区间上最优漂移具有对数梯度形式 $b^ullet(t,x)=A\,\nabla\log H(t,x)$,当冻结协方差 $A$ 退化时,其内在对应活跃协方差方向。我们证明了冻结近似的稳定性与正则化核估计器的一致性,并提出了参考感知的 Nadaraya-Watson 实现方式来计算条件增量分布,最后在数值实验中验证了该方法的有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Schrödinger bridges for time series (SBTS) generate synthetic paths by projecting, in relative entropy, a Brownian reference onto the path laws that match the joint distribution of the data on the observation grid. The Brownian reference, however, fixes the quadratic variation of the generated paths, which is restrictive when stochastic volatility, correlated noise, or rank-deficient covariance structures must be reproduced. We introduce "Triangular-Reference Schrödinger Bridges for Time Series" (TR-SBTS), which keeps the entropy-projection backbone of SBTS but replaces the Brownian reference by a triangular, volatility-informed, intervalwise frozen reference on a state augmented with latent covariance descriptors. The construction remains a single entropy projection on the augmented state: the minimiser is the \(h\)-transform of the reference, and on each frozen interval the optimal drift has the logarithmic-gradient form \(b^\star(t,x)=A\,\nabla\log H(t,x)\), intrinsic to the active covariance directions when the frozen covariance \(A\) is degenerate. We prove stability of the frozen approximation and consistency of the associated regularised kernel estimators, describe a reference-aware Nadaraya--Watson implementation of the conditional next-increment law, and evaluate the construction on numerical experiments.
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